Thursday, January 01, 2009

Happy 2009: some predictions

If you were to go from the Lenana peak at the top of Kirinyaga Mountain and walk across to the top of the Aberdare Ranges, that would give you perfect feel for how most stockmarkets will move to 2010. Assuming Q2 2007 to be the Lenana peak, I expect:
NSE- will not go beyond 4,500 weighed down by economy morass and newish listings (KPC, KenGen, NSE, Nakumatt, DPL Festive)
Access Kenya, Safaricom, Equity in that order will be top performing NSE shares in 2009
FX: $/Ksh will close below Ksh70; £/Ksh will close at Ksh115-20 both driven to the floor by arbitrage
LUSE: Has lost almost 30% this yr primairily driven by foreigners exiting but will stablise in 2009
FTSE: Will not go beyond 5,000 as unemployment, company defaults, housing depression continue to depress


Inflation: Will be re-calculated but reality is that it'll remain very high unless rains are very good
Economy: 4.5% growth will be recorded for 2009 i.e broadly similar to this yr, the result of lower international receipts, inflation espicially fuel an electricity.
KRA: will miss it target for yr.

BoE rate: will close at 1%
UK unemployment will rise to 3m

Different yr, same BS
  • The local tribunal will get bogged down from the start. The investigations will clear most of the "10" for lack of sufficient evidence.
  • Constitution review will get stuck on the same two issues namely parliamentary/presidential system (excellent explaination of the diffs) and devolution (or is it ujimbo/ugatuzi/ukabila/upuzi?)
And finally, Liverpool FC will win the Premier League in May.


Ssembonge said...

Happy new year. Anything better than last year is welcome.

MainaT said...


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