NSE weekly catch up: signs of maturing bourse

NSE eased down towards the latter part of the week and continues hoevering at 3,400 level ahead of the results season which should kick off in earnest in the first week of Feb. We might have a small rally towards 4,000 before easing back in April.

CMC released its results for its financial year which closed in September (btw, I always thought that the NSE/CMA vigorously enforce the 3 month window for results announcement). Kenyans are still buying cars. PAT was up 50% helped by a strong jaw effect (revenue-27% growing much faster than costs-6.2%). CMC has 18% of the mwananchi car market, so I am assuming it derives most of its revenue from higher market share in buses and tractors. I don't see it having as strong a year in 2009 given macroevents. DPS went up to Ksh0.45 equating to a 3% dividend yield at close of play on Friday-okay for a growth company. Books for the dividend close end of Jan.. .

KCB's share price seems to have gotten away with just small scratches despite its debacle with Triton. However, Africa Alliance downgraded its earnings outlook for 2009 by 36%! About the maturing NSE, this was first time in a while that live news transmitted to instant price changes so transaprently.

Macro: Kenyan analyst confirmed the lower growth expectations for 2009. We are sending a huge delegation to watch tv in the US while appealing for food aid.

LUSE remains weak and subdued.

FTSE: Short selling is back as of yesterday and banks took a terrible pasting as short sellers flooded in in earnest. The other reason is that credit crunch is now on mainstreet with job losses feeding into bad debs. And Bank of America has this week discovered that it bought the wrong bank.