Kenya's transport system in transition

How many roads has kibz govt built during his era? 1. The northern bypass. 2. if you can call expansion of Thika Road building rather than expansion. The remainder have been re-laying of roads that have been in existence. And yet the cost has been enormous; Ksh24bn for Thika Road; Ksh4.6bn+ for Nairobi to Nakuru; circa the same for Nakuru to Eldoret bit of the road and a similar amount or more for the rehabilitation of sections of the Mombasa road; Ksh2bn for Sagana to Nyeri rehabilitation half as much for Nyeri to Nyahururu repairs. And so on. It would not surprise, to see the figure exceeding Ksh100bn for so-called rehabilitation work. In comparison, repair work on parts of the Nyeri road will cost Ksh200m.

In the airport sector, same story, yes it has been expanded but Kisumu Airport (sorry International Airport) cost just over Ksh2bn to bring it into the late 20th century. Numerous other airstrips have also been snatched from cows who were using them as grazing fields. Rehabilitation...

In the rail sector, we've neglected this key channel for so long that the cost to update it (wholesale including tracks, trains et al), will be quite enormous. Another rehabilitation job.

The point. Let GoK create a special repair and maintenance budget portion which will be increased annually as we increase the number of roads, airstrips et al such that that there is a greater concentration on repairs rather than rehabilitation. Its cheaper. Secondly, we need to think around how we can maintain this transport system. Trailers are decimating the Northern corridor because they are carrying weight that should be borne by railtracks not a road. The type of inputs used to build/rehabilitate are also important. Mbagathi Way was built using concrete and has a 20yr life expectancy. Its costs were projected to only be 8% than tarmacking which lasts at most 2 years (3 months when done by a Kenyan contractor).

Charterhouse gate- Peter Odhiambo another unsung Kenyan hero

If it wasn't for Peter Odhiambo, Charterhouse, moneylaunderer's bank would never have been closed back in 2006. If it wasn't for Peter Odhiambo, Harun Mwau, the drug KingPin would never have been recognised by the US of A for his efforts in distribution of illicit drugs.

If it wasn't for Peter Odhiambo, this article won't have been as revealing of our misunderstanding about white collar crime.

Today lets salute Peter Odhiambo, an unsung Kenyan hero. Hope Kenyans like him can day one resume their job of grwoing and building the nation without fear or favor.

Good economics is good politics, bad politics is bad economics

It can be said that Kenya's economy has grown the last 9 or so years. It can be said that Kenya has not known the kind of political we've had in the last 9 years.

But the economic growth has widened the gap between the "haves" and the "have nots". Secondly, it has not been a "jobs" growth whereby, the economy was absorbing jobless graduate, secondary leavers and of course KCPE-leavers. At an average of 4.5%, this means that once you take off the effect of 2.3% population growth, it has grown at a paltry 2.2%. Good enough for the West economies, not for a developing nation. The growth has also not been sustainable. With the exception of the telecom industry, other sectors remain dependant on exogenous factors (agriculture, tourism among our largest fx earners); in others such as manufacturing and infrastructure building, we are still dependant on foreign money or investment.

It has also been growth that has seen concomitant growth in corruption. It has not been felt by the majority of Kenyans in a positive way. Negatively yes because now staple foods and basic necessities are more expensive, but earnings have not kept up. Pour into the mix a very young population and really the growth looks anything but stellar.

Kibaki doesn't do politics. Politics is not just about being able to take smart political decisions, but also more importantly, being able to take the public pulse into on major decisions.

On both fronts, we are not giving ourselves the chance to grow.

Is economic growth the panacea to our ills?

An analogy to start with. You are in Nai earning Ksh110k per month and are able to save/invest 10k of that. Your pay rise goes up by between 5/6% pa (assumption is that you are a performer). However due to a mixture of prices of the goods you consume and your increased spending you find that total expenditure has gone up by 5%/6%. Thus you are unable to save more. Being ambitious, you want your own home and nice car-probably a compressor and obviously current spending and investing/saving rate doesn't allow that. So you borrow to finance both and pay using your salary.  The house is not new and neither is the car so both require running repairs. Pretty soon Kamau finds that he has having to run after pyramid schemes and mitumba loans to make ends meet. Our economy i s growing at 5/6% which equivalent to the above salary increase and we have enormous problems that need to be resolved. 60% of Nairobians live in makeshift housing with no social amenities to speak of. This is a microcosm of the rest of the nation with probably a lower % with piped water-one of the key indicators of raised standards of living. Yet what are we doing with increased tax revenues? Increasing salaries for public servants without real concomitant performance gains. MPs-here you go a blank cheque for you to fill in required amount. KACC and other associated and equally inept anti-corruption bodies- here you go a blank cheque for you. A house for the veep-here is a blank cheque for a construction of your choice. Police cars-here is a blank cheque. Etc etc. Until the important and critical cornerstones of our economic growth get forgotten. A focused road building programme is actually cheaper (you create a pool of qualified experienced engineers, project managers, public finance accountants,  you create a pool of experienced road builders, source the material cheaply). This will employ some of these idle young bloods who will in turn go and spend keeping the likes of Uchumi in business and thus its employs more Kenyans who then go and spend. Its the multiplier effect. Its not difficult, but unless difficult choices are made, economic growth will just be a number...

Marriage and Kenya's economic wellbeing/future

This article got me thinking about something that is an increasing phenomena in Kenya, but is rarely talked about amid all our many other problems. To what extent does the increase in divorces and single-parenthood impact our ability to forge forward as an economy? Although no real data is readily available on divorce rates in Kenya or even trends, anecdotally, its obvious that this has increased as has separation/desertion. As afar as singleparenthood goes, available data suggests this around 25% of all families which is not as bad as USA (34%).
Sheer economies of scale would suggest that stable married/come-we-stay couples would be able to earn more and create an environment under which children would flourish and be successful. The inverse is not always the case i.e. that single parent families and divorce couples don't lead to successful children, but it does mean that the success path for the children is much more difficult.
The question is, is Kenya supportive of marriages?

KENYA - A return to microeconomic stability

Hi All ...

I came across this report on Kenya - prepared by JP Morgan and think it will be useful to all who currently invest or would like to invest back home.
http://www.box.net/public/vaoa4onu7s