Results Catch Up- NSE FTSE half yr

TPS Serena is recovering nicely from a tough 2008 and going by the visa queues at the Kenya High Comm recently, things should continue to improve.

StanChart surprised didn't it with an atypical 38% increase from H1 2008? The bottomline was driven by circa 24% growth in both interest income (and surprisingly nothing to do with govt securities despite the Ksh9bn increase) and F&C as well as flat expenses. In other words strong cost/income ratio. Capital ratios look tight. Still not a buy for me unless for dividend purposes (Ksh2.50 DPS will be paid in early Oct). NBK (an okay 11% uptick) and KCB also released some flat as a pancake PAT. Some high quotient analysis was done on the latter here. BBK's Adan Mohamed had a party after 5% rise on 2008 H1, but a couple of sobering points. Flat costs and vastly reduced loan loss provisions means there should have been a higher rise. But nothing came from the income side of the P&L. Finally, parent bank showed up with 8% rise despite a very challenging environment and did better than its rival clearing banks Lloyds TSB, HSBC. RBS may do better though.

ARM continues to defy high production costs with a 32% yoy increase in profits pegged on turnover growth of 16% and reduction in production costs. It remains despite its small 10% cement market the stock to watch out of the 3 cement sellers and infact one of the good picks from the NSE industrial stocks.

Olympia finally decided to announce its FY 2008 numbers. As expected, it rolled up with a loss though not as high as many of us had forecasted (Ksh56m). I suspect the numbers don't fit. For example, if you strip Ksh1bn for Plush, you leave Olympia where it was before it bought it. Smart...

NSE Banks: Q1 2009 Results

General comment: Across the board, banks have reduced lending from prior quarter. They are basically wanting to avoid additional defaults. YoY quarter profit growth is slim. Peer analysis should mainly focus on outliers:

Good outliers:

• Net interest margin- thanks to the GoK bond, NBK is enjoying healthy interest income without sweat. It'll be on-going for a while yet.
• Cost Income ratio- this is good because it basically translates to a higher return on capital the more you can get from each shillingi you spend. StanChart despite anaemic income growth, has managed (via use of technology) to maintain leadership here.
• Return on capital- both UK banks standout. No real surprise because this is something that tends to be return as a personal development goal for CEOs/FDs of many UK banks.
• Insider loans as prop of loans: Equity stands out for low prop. Insider loans are notorious source of loan book instability for Kenyan banks.
• Excess liquidity ratio: It bears pointing out that Lehman was brought down by lack of liquidity. Stanchart looks really strong. A bit strange given recent report about all banks but Equity struggling for the stuff.
• Capital/RWA ratio: Equity is standout. This ratio can make or break business. It signifies a bank's ability to grow, but also to absorb nasty stuff like loan loss provisions aka bad debt write-offs.

Bad Outliers:

1. NIM- NIC and DTB must be paying over the odds for deposits. I understand this is what prompted NIC to be among the first to loan rates last year.
2. Cost income ratio-KCB's burden. Equity says it is in its investment phase hence the massive increase in staff costs. Keep an eye out.
3. YoY PAT growth- Whats up KCB?
4. Fwd P/E- Given the lowered growth rate for the year, the fwd multiple for 2009 looks too rich for Equity. Ksh10 looks more comfortable until we see what Q3/4 brings in.
5. NPLs as a prop of loans- Equity (perhaps unsurprisingly given target class and seeing K-Rep), is out here. Several pts of note. Several yrs back, I remember a blogger mentioning that Equity recognises NPLs much earlier than other banks. I'll confirm this in another blog. 2ndly, because of its capital capacity, it can still absorb the whole of its NPL fairly comfortably.

Equity buying NBK... What for and how much?

JM has apparently expressed serious interest in NBK as GoK looks for a strategic partner for it. Why would anybody be interested in NBK? From the chart, the following stands out:

• Ksh34bn customer deposits (primarily GoK parastatals and GoK), but would only be accessible with a full or controlling stake. GoK and NSSF together hold 71% of the bank, but it'd be unusual for GoK to surrender such a huge stake in one go.
• Branch network: 26 well located and distributed branches would be a real boon. If you were a bank seeking to enter the Kenyan market. Equity has 128 branches throughout the nation and in some places will there definitely be duplication. Can it go against its customer ethos and close some of these to reap cost synergies?
• And that is that unless you can count in the low cost/income ratio.
• And unless you count any npl skeletons still rattling within its loan book, its a small bank to swallow.
• Equity needs 50%+ stake to enjoy the above benefits (I am fairly sure it'd seek to retain the GoK deposits by agreement at least for a few yrs otherwise it'd be a dud). At Ksh31.25 a piece, that would make the stake worth just over Ksh3bn and then you add 10-25% premium to entice GoK.

NSE weekly catch up: bear rally?

NSE closed up almost 10% from its Monday opening with demand unmatched by supply on some stocks. Some of this seems to be being driven by the rising water effect i.e. Western markets rising and picking up everything else globally. Some might be illusionary however and nimbling rather than chunky bites of share-buying is advisable. Reason being nothing has fundamnetally changed from last week or the week before. Still, fortune favors the brave and the pickup might extend to one or two weeks before reality sinks in. From my point of view, I may exit one of my bigger positions because gains made from fx rates alone mean I can walk away and come back later once things come back to earth.

Results:

DTB announced 48% rise on prior year and with a regional footprint, looks set to compete with the likes of KCB and Equity for the fastest growing banks in EA. As I mentioned previously, I remain a big fan of this bank and especially because of its AKD connection. Would prefer it to KCB ( higher EPS (therefore lower fwd P/E); much much lower NPLs and a broader footprint regionally). DPS is ksh1.40 payable in June.

NBK grew by 10% from 2007! And deposits actually fell by 1% which does limit its ability to grow the loanbook going forward. I don't know how NBK shareholders can optimistically look forward to a dividend in 2010. And there is the prospect of the OFS later in the year.

Macroview: UK got trashed by this blogger when he was appointed FM, but made two positive announcements this week. The freeze on expenditure is way overdue, and the only disappointment is that it didn't go further and sink to be used as arguement for rationalising governance. Still, I think implementing will be much harder. Some cash should definitely be set aside for his PS to travel to Iceland, Mexico, Argentina among others to learn than yes GoK can get broke. The 2nd positive announcement was to manage expectations downwards on economic growth. 3.5% is doable where anything above 4% would have been a stretch.

Other markets:

I'm gonna make a call. FTSE has priced in most of the bad news and has either bottomed or will in the next few weeks. The only remaining pieces are Yanqui sorting their banking industry and the UK treasury's decision on how it'll treat Barclays' request for inusurance vs its toxic stuff. At close of business jana, Barclays the parent was trading at Ksh75 while BBK was trading at Ksh39. Go figure. Tullow Oil announced another oil find in Ghana and 80% growth in profits. Time for me to exit though...

Another IPO coming at DSE. Fuller details later.

Finally:

Jack Welch has apparently changed his mind about the place of shareholders in a listed firm's priority list. And Babcock & Brown, an IB that was being considered for a role in RVR collapsed jana.

KPC, KCB, KTB: we are not or are we?

In the 90's you read a financial scandal and re-read to see if what you were reading was true or some fictional thriller. One gets the same feeling reading some of the stories now.

One Samuel Gichuru is now known for his billions made at KPLC via various schemes such as the treated or untreated poles, deliberate reduction of HEP and ofcourse his appetite for "relations". Then you recall NBK and its laundry list of bad uncollateralised and unrecorded loans to the honourable MPs.

Now KPC has a missing 56m litres of oil which was allegedly bought by Triton. Triton had used this oil as collateral to borrow (wait for it), Ksh2bn from KCB (and I am ignoring the Ksh90bn that KCB has apparently lent to Triton over 4 years on the assumption most of it has been paid)! KCB which I unfortunately commended the other day for being ahead in its risk management now risks having to provide for a large portion of this loan as it didn't actually have anything but letters of assurance from KPC about its collateral. Triton collapsed just before year end... And yes, KPC is due to be listed this year... By the way, why was Triton doing KPC's job for it?

Memo to KCB: In good times, risk management has to be first class, in bad times, natural risk aversion should kick in. Its your collateral and it doesn't matter if KPC is the only one with storage, you have to have letters of guarantee that says KPC will bear the substantial risk of the collateral. Its not me being clever in hindsight. Did anybody evaluate Triton's cashflow and finances before the loan?

As for KTB, the story shows another sad state of affairs especially when the tourism industry needs all the positive PR it can get.

So are we regressing back to m-o-i days again? My take is we are and I really hope that GoK is serious about divesting itself from business asap.

NSE Latest

NBK grew by 38% compared to first half of 2007. SCB stood still despite an incredible first quarter which was driven by FX presumably due to Diaspora trasnfers into Safaricom IPO.

Speaking of which, Safaricom is now firmly in my territory, but I am not buying because the supply volumes are averaging something like 10m shares which way to much bearish-sentiment on the counter. Surely it must be good news that Econet won't now happen until September (possibly not at all this year according to Kainvestor)?

An investor was caught napping and bought NMG at Ksh332 after the share had already spilt. What I didn't understand is why given that dealers do still enter the share order, they didn't spot this and just divide the order by 2 or at least counter-check with the investor.

Despite 197% growth from H1 2007, Equity proved what a speculative Stockmarket we have by giving up almost 20% a week after its results announcement because investors feared that its principal shareholders would move their cash into bonds and farming once their lock-in period ended. Some are also confused as to whether the lock-in period ended on 31st of July or will end on 31st of August...

Stellar Numbers from KCB for H1 2008

KCB posted KSh2.46bn PAT for the first half of 2008, 67% higher than prior year. Of the big 4 (BBK, Stanchart and Equity being the others), KCB is the only one that looks to be keeping up with Equity (though the later has now surpassed it in terms of PAT having posted by khs432k more :-)). Interest income was higher driven by KSh20bn growth in loans as well as interest from t-bills (up Ksh7bn). I assume it also benefited from Safcom IPO commissions (Ksh1bn in "other income"). Cost/income ratio has improved though from among the highest in the industry to around 65%.
Price comment: My number one rule when investing in a stock is usually the growth rate of its PAT and how sustainable this is. With these kind of numbers, KCB still remains a buy as it moves into Uganda, Rwanda & Burundi and expands in TZ and very successfully in South Sudan.

Prior to the announcement on NBK, I was running it through my investment thought process, but I think this makes much harder to decide on the way forward. The upside is that reduced GoK involvement is very welcome as it'll mean getting a strategic investor who can hopefully ease it Marimbi out. The downside is that the proposed increase of shares floated on the NSE will have similar effect to a that announcement on KenGen. Ultimately, will have to take a position either way.

National Bank of Kenya: Bigger scandal than GRH

In the 1980s and 1990s, the M-o-1 regime completely lost it. Guys had to be rewarded and were rewarded as if Kenya was the mzee's property. Land was no longer enough. One of the then new gifts given then was "nenda NBK umbie mzee amesema upatiwe pesa" literally "go to NBK and tell them mzee said for them to give you money". Naturally these had to be recorded as loans, but loans with no collateral. By the late 1990s, these were so bad that GoK considered closing down NBK. At the time Nyachae a no nonsense type of politician was Finance Minister and realising things had haywired completely released a list of 87 politicians and their affiliated companies who were behind NBK's problems as they owed Ksh8.7bn (around ksh30/Ksh40bn in today's money). Getting hold of that list today is virtually impossible to do but I know it includes:

1. Sam Ongeri;


2. the late Kipkalya Kones;


3. Joshua Kulei;


4. the late PC Fred Waiganjo


5. the late Munene wa Kairu (my former MP) who owed just over Ksh300m


6. to 87. who I'll name as I collect the names...

These loans are it seems the ones that were written-off by GoK in its Ksh20bn bond to NBK. At the time of the deal to write-off the Ksh20bn I was shocked because my understanding was always that NBK didn't have significant portfolio of bad debt emanating from parastatals. What it means is somebody took money from NBK under duress, spent it and then had GoK pay-off the loan on their behalf!

And peeps are complaining about what looks like a bargain (though unprocedural and untransparent) deal for Grand Regency?

PS: While searching for the 87 names, I stumbled upon the original Ndungu-repport otherwise known as the List of Shame that was tabled by Musikari Kombo sometime back. Very very interesting read...

NSE Stock Portfolio: 6 months into 2008

Generally, I haven't traded much this yr, not because of lacking opportunities, more because of a busy schedule elsewhere and an evolving strategy. From buying and holding for the whole presidential cycle, I am now more inclined to buy, and hold as long as the stocks are meeting the short-term mini-goals i.e. FY profits etc.

Bought:

1. During the January clashes: Equity@125, TPS@58 and Barclays@65
2. Nation Media Group@326 just before it announced its results
3. A few Safaricom during the IPO

Switched: after its Q1 results, sold-off my whole Barclays portfolio and switched into Equity@250 and Access Kenya@33.50

Overall Portfolio: Also includes ARM, KCB, NIC and EA Cables.
Overall trading from H1 2008: Very good returns....

Running the ruler over:

• Nation Bank of Kenya
• Safaricom while waiting to see if it'll get cheaper than ksh7.40.

PS: The above is my own personal stock-trading account. For KCIG, we outperformed the NSE for H1 2008

Rumour share-trading

One of the hallmarks of a bear/bull market these days is that rumours become an important component of your stock trading. You have to understand when a rumour is driving the market; which way is it driving the market; what is the rumour; who is the source of the rumour; and more importantly why the rumour?
In Kenya, rumours fall into three types: rumours that will lead to increased number of shares; rumours about merger activity and bankrupt/corruption-type rumours:

• Increased number of shares via bonus issue: usually done before results announcement, tends to get very giddy response and only happens when the stock is doing exceptionally profitability-wise. These are the rarest because they don’t happen often and tend to be credible. Secondly, they also have a very short-window i.e. will usually happen just before the results are announced. This is the best bull to ride, but requires a lot of analysis of the motives from the stock’s point of view.
• Increased number of shares via stock spilt: very popular rumour and will usually affect a share with a price above Ksh200. KPLC is probably in a class of its own on this one.
• Increased number of shares via rights: also popular, but as investors become more savvy, they’re waiting for firm details (especially on pricing), and thus lacks the bull-ride it had in 2006 or early 2007
• Merger activity: usually focused on banking and cement sectors. Last year was about NBK and later on about Equity. Rarely get any reaction unless it’s tangible.
• Bankruptcy/liquidity/corruption sagas: usually coincide with a bearish market and may occasionally have political undertones. Equity has been the main victim (of both of them) even after Hellios entry. After benefitting from the 1-2&3 above, EA Cables also became victim early this year of a politically-driven rumour about its inability to meet loan repayments and pending bankruptcy proceedings.

Outside of Kenya, rumours tend to be intelligently targeted but don’t defer too much from above apart from those on profitability. Barclays, HBOS and Lehman Brothers have all been recent victims of the liquidity/bankruptcy-type rumours some very targeted by short-sellers. During the bull market era aka leverage era, Barclays used to be linked to every bank merger and Lehman to UBS’ investment banking ones.

Bottom-line though, the old line of buy on fundamentals sell on rumours, no longer suffices.

In other news, the best one line on credit crunch comes from a certain Omaha stock trader by the name Warren Buffet “You only learn who has been swimming naked when the tide goes out”.
Finally, my commiserations in advance of tonight’s Champions League game to Arsenal fans. Good wine takes a long-time to mature. Your time will come, but not tonight.

A short history of Kenyan IPOs: Lessons and reminiscences

KCB: Listing price Ksh20 in 1988. Suffice to say that if you were shareholder in 1988,you most likely would have lost your hair but made good evenutally as the stock is KSh24 (after many rights, additional divestures and spilts). Was the 1st GoK privatisation.
NBK: Listing price Ksh10 in 1994. Even with a 2nd GoK divesture in 1996, has posted 400% returns for IPO investors despite its dismal perfomance profits-wise. Thanks Jimnah.
Kenya Airways: Listing price Ksh11.25 in 1996. Its IPO was the Safaricom of its day and has salutary lessons for us all. Its listing in 1996 saw 110,000 new investors (was a huge number in those days) and was the first by an African Airline. Within no time and helped by Goldenberg, drought and moi-economics, the economy was in ICU. KQ's shares went down to KSh6 andwere stuck there for a spell. Investors slashed their wrists and vowed never again until KenGen IPO came along.
KenGen: Listing price Ksh11.90 in 2006. This IPO ushered the new era of NSE complete with CDSC accounts, investors increasing to 500k+ and was the first IPO I took part in. Perhaps due to the absence of IPOs for along-time, lessons were learned by all
                
                  *Don't make IPO a free-for-all, you'll end up high investor expenses from annual reports, AGMs and                     the like
                   *Share price will stagnate due to liquidity glut
                  * Do price it low
                  *Every investor will see profits and jump, cue oversubscriptions and interest-rate earning for brokers

ScanGroup: Listing price Ksh10.45  in 2006. With lessons learned, guys jumped and made a mint (some 300%). The share still has way too many investors. I have cashed out after getting frustrated about the stagnant price.
Everready: Listing price Ksh9.50 in 2006. A lemon among the recent IPOs. And most knowledgeable investors new it before it listed and thus went in for speculative purposes. Its high lasted a month before plummeting below IPO price where it has refused to come away from. I sold at around KSh18 for one my cdsc account and was flat on another due to lax broker nonsense.
Access Kenya: Listing price Ksh10 in 2007. Although I've made more money from others, this one I am enjoying because it has something of a schedenfraude about it. Firstly, many trashed it on the basis of the forthcoming fibre optic and Telkom's takeover by French Telecom. Secondly, the upside is so huge that I won't be surprised if it reaches mid 30s by next year. Beyond that, it's all about how well it adapts to increased competition, but I am sure it will.
Kenya Re: Listing price Ksh9.50 in 2007. Companies were now wise to the ways of retail investors and restricted their participation. This has ensured that the upside seen in the share has stayed as institutional investors are long-term. But will that last if KRe doesn't change its pre-IPO ways and given this Jan/Feb claims? I am still holding a small portion though I may dispose once I get a dividend for 2007.
Safaricom: Listing price Ksh5.00 in 2008. I hope many can see a pattern emerging in all the preceding IPOs. So judge Safcom as you'd any other share. That way, you'll invest on the basis of its fundamentals which will either look strong or weak. If you think it's strong, why buy for speculative purposes only to go for it later when it might have doubled in value? If you think its weak, then you better review your exit strategy once you know the allocations and especially for the QII and foreign investors. As well as the cabinet composition. If either or both has  massively oversubscribed and cabinet is kosher, you are in the money . And out of the money if v.v.

NSE roundup

KCB saw 41% y-o-y increase in PAT for quarter 3, largely driven by growth in interest income of 32% and slower growth in expense of 17%. However the time to check Odour's progress as CEO should be Q1 2008's results. I have no doubt he'll perform though.

StanChart, the laggard among the large banks saw flat PAT yoy growth. For your reference, a bank should always be making at least double the economy's growth rate. The pity of it is that this is happening under the watch of its first Kenyan CEO Etemesi.

NBK started seeing the benefits of the bond interest payments from GoK paying off its debt.

Mumias crystallised some of its plans to generate-revenue from power by signing a contract with KPLC. MSC also closed the offer period on its 2 for 1 bonus share issue. For my money, its
 best purchase price given recent share price history would be under Ksh10, that is unless COMESA extension happens first.
TC announced a private placement. The interesting question is why they are doing it so close to an election.
Finally CFC-Stanbic merger is all but a reality as it enters its final stage. StanChart, your days are numbered.

Interims announced this week

In order of performance vs. expectation:
TPS: PAT doubled in H1'07 compared to last year as the group consolidated its lead in the Kenyan and TZ markets. TPS has also acquired hotels in Rwanda and Burundi and is using this to sell "Destination East Africa" tour packages. Barring anymore adverse travel notices and with improved road network, TPS Serena being the only tourism related stock on the NSE allied to AKD ownership should be a must-have. Despite a bonus issue, share price is nearly back to pre-bonus levels. Has exceeded expectations.
EACables: A 45% growth in after tax earnings is good going given the continued rise in base metals. EA Cables has just completed its new factory. This will enable it be in a position to provide fibre optic cables to the new market. Its also looking at entrenching its top position in East Africa while expanding to South Sudan and Central Africa. Watch this space.
NBK: Leapfrogged Equity to announce its results first. No major surprises in terms of rise in PBT of 34%. Closer scrutiny of P&L and BS did reveal several puzzles. PBT rise was primarily due to lower loan loss provision (because of fewer loans?) and Fees and Comms. Interest income fell by 20% due to lower rates compared to last yr. The bank has a very small loan book. The real puzzle was that after repayment of 20bn npl by GoK its 33bn NPL has fallen to 5bn? The new initiative announcements are also fairly dull. If a bank is going into mortgages or rural areas similar to 5 others, it has be able to say this is what will distinguish us from say Equity in the rural area or Stanbic in mortgages. There is also the risk of over-paying to snatch customers from existing banks or getting lousy customers in the case of mortgages.

Results Catch-up

KCB: saw 38% rise in Q1 after tax profits helped by strong loan growth (ksh16bn year on year (44%)) which drove 22% rise in interest income and 24% growth in Fees and commissions. Gratingly for those who like to see banks doing their intermediary role, KCB is driving loan growth forward without concomitant rise in loan loss provisions. KCB’s current momentum (it plans to open 10 new branches every year and expand regionally to Sudan, TZ and Ug in that order), explain the recent share spilt.
Equity: A doubling of income (both interest income and fees) led to a massive 226% rise in PAT from prior yr’s Q1 and led to questions about sustainability. The bank has now acquired a ksh6.9bn loan to help further expansion as it looks to enter the mortgage sector.
NBK: Saw Q1 PAT fall by ksh7m to ksh152m on falling net income. NBK has finally had ksh20bn of its Ksh33bn NPLs written-off by GoK. Though there will be no immediate impact, earnings will improve in the long-term as a cleaner balance sheet allows it to lend more. This will and is atracting speculators in the short-term.
KQ’s 15% drop in PAT for FY was a surprise when it shouldn't have been i.e. CEO Titus had flagged this earlier in the yr. The surprise was in the reasons for the fall (weaker dollar and fuel costs). The dollar is weaker compared to prior yr, but was only below the average rate of 72 for around 2 months of KQ's financial year. Fuel costs can be hedged to a large extent.
DTK: After tax profits doubled from year earlier with strong income on a growing loan book supported by only a slight increase in expenses . DTK is issuing a rights issue for its TZ business.
Its AKD stable mate, Jubilee also announced FY which grew by 51% on growth across all income streams. For its shareholders, there is a final dividend of ksh3.25 and 1 for 4 shares held bonus share issue to look forward to.
Finally, NIC Bank's strategy of niching the market seems to have paid-off in FY06 with PAT growing by 59%. NIC continues to innovate and its contrary strategy means it will make money at times when others may not. As with other growing medium-sized banks, NIC will need to recapitalise at some pt (possibly via a long-term loan or rights issue) as affirmed by Fitch ratings agency.