Credit crunch- lessons for Kenyan banks' risk management

Imho, the genesis of the current West financial crisis is the deregulation of financial services in 1970s and 1980s that allowed financial entities into activities they were previously barred from. As an example, Barclays could move from retail to investment banking. However, the skillset required to manage a retail vs. an investment bank is like chalk and cheese. Banks then started off-shoring risk in their banking or even trading books e.g. by bundling loans and offering them as collateral in exchange for loans from other financial firms. From the late 80s/early 90s financial firms then offered insurance against these bundled loans using credit derivative swaps. Infact, almost every type of risk was managed via an invented form of derivative. Factor in globalisation; the emergency of the APAC nations and a benign interest rate regime. All this took place within 20 years and risk managers and senior managers generally either couldn't or didn't keep pace with the changes although the generally bullish conditions presumably fooled some. Finally, too many banks exclusively relied on either international rules on risk (Basel accords) or what regulators stipulated. In other words, they outsourced risk management.

Risk management is very straightforward;

1. Based on your understanding of the business your entity undertakes, identify the risks it faces.
2. Measure these risks in terms of the potential monetary impact on your bank's capital/liquidity and profitability.
3. Monitor these risks.
4. Set up ways of controlling these risks. To be clear, banks as with other walks of life, will always face risks. Control entails expressing your risk limits/appetite and putting controls in place to keep within the said limits.

Where an entity doesn'tdo any of the above to a satisfactory degree, nothing (sophisticated VaR models, stress testing and scenario analysis; layers upon layers of risk management cadres) will prevent failure due to one type of risk or the other. Unwary risk management meant that Northern Rock and Lehman Brothers and others fell over whilst ticking all the boxes on capital adequacy as dedicated by Basel 2, whilst neglecting liquidity risk. Failure of risk/senior managers to keep pace with the changing dynamics of its fast growth, led to Northern Rock's failure. The complexity of Lehmans' business and legal structure meant a Tsunami was not seen in good time.

Similarly, lax risk management can also be in CBK's risk survey undertaken in 2010;

-30% of Kenyan banks didn't have a centralised risk function (so nobody apart from perhaps the CRO) knows the overall risks faced by their bank.

-to compound the above, 58% of the banks don't have a head of risk i.e. nobody to take senior responsibility for risk management.

-Just over half of Kenyan banks reviewed their risk management manuals annually. This in a very fast changing industry. Think mobile banking, internet banking, agency banking, branch growth, regional expansion, increased fx/interest rate risk, money laundering laws to name but a few.

-7 banks didn't have a dedicated MIS for risk and another 9 only collected risk MI on an annual basis. So 16 banks couldn't tell you what risks they faced at any given time.

-16 banks didn't think they needed to make any changes to their risk management practices...

When things are going well (straight growth in year on year profitability), its easy to take your eye of the ball, but remember, its only when the waves go out, that we know who is naked.

Kenya's transport system in transition

How many roads has kibz govt built during his era? 1. The northern bypass. 2. if you can call expansion of Thika Road building rather than expansion. The remainder have been re-laying of roads that have been in existence. And yet the cost has been enormous; Ksh24bn for Thika Road; Ksh4.6bn+ for Nairobi to Nakuru; circa the same for Nakuru to Eldoret bit of the road and a similar amount or more for the rehabilitation of sections of the Mombasa road; Ksh2bn for Sagana to Nyeri rehabilitation half as much for Nyeri to Nyahururu repairs. And so on. It would not surprise, to see the figure exceeding Ksh100bn for so-called rehabilitation work. In comparison, repair work on parts of the Nyeri road will cost Ksh200m.

In the airport sector, same story, yes it has been expanded but Kisumu Airport (sorry International Airport) cost just over Ksh2bn to bring it into the late 20th century. Numerous other airstrips have also been snatched from cows who were using them as grazing fields. Rehabilitation...

In the rail sector, we've neglected this key channel for so long that the cost to update it (wholesale including tracks, trains et al), will be quite enormous. Another rehabilitation job.

The point. Let GoK create a special repair and maintenance budget portion which will be increased annually as we increase the number of roads, airstrips et al such that that there is a greater concentration on repairs rather than rehabilitation. Its cheaper. Secondly, we need to think around how we can maintain this transport system. Trailers are decimating the Northern corridor because they are carrying weight that should be borne by railtracks not a road. The type of inputs used to build/rehabilitate are also important. Mbagathi Way was built using concrete and has a 20yr life expectancy. Its costs were projected to only be 8% than tarmacking which lasts at most 2 years (3 months when done by a Kenyan contractor).

Unemployment in Kenya: the rural/urban divide

Unemployment is a lot higher in urban areas in Kenya. Infact among the 15-30 age group, the unemployment is between 30-40%. There are many reasons, but ofcourse the key driver is that for the last 30 years, economic and population have competed for parity. Nationally, but in urban areas population growth has far outweighed economic growth. Its a problem that even China faces today, but its been growing at 9% compared to 2-3% for Kenya.

And yet. A friend tells of a situation where he recently hired some guys to build a stone wall for him. After spending the best part of an hour haggling over hat they'd get paid, the guys finished at 4.30pm without getting to where they had agreed. The next day, some of them turned up drank and reopened the discussion relating to the payment. In the end he had to fire the several of them including the foreman because he realised he won't get anything done. Its difficult to get people who are interested in doing sales in particular sectors for example, I know somebody who is struggling to get sellers of pcs/laptops partly because the roles are mostly commission-based.. Part of the problem is that people have lost a certain work ethic and yet desire the things that money brings. There is also certain desire for white-collar jobs which are not that many compared to their demand.

In most rural areas (specifically Central/ parts of RV), farmers are struggling with their farms because they can't farm labourers to take on various paid chores.

The question is how this bridge can closed. Firstly, is that farming needs to get more commercial such that farmers are in turn able to pay labourers living wages. Secondly, the stigma attached to educated doing farming jobs needs to be removed. In this vein, there is a school thought that says farmers need to start advertising for labourers...

NSE: what looks good for 2012?

The NSE now actively trades both bonds and stocks and both are worth considering at any given time. In 2012, we ofcourse have the natural uptick in political risk which will probably go a notch higher due to the ICC (my head and heart tells me 2-4 will see charges levied). To the mix, add the Eurozone and oil prices. I expect that the Euro will reach some kind of cliffhanger once one o the smaller states has to withdraw. Although a lot of the risk has already prompted asset shifts, this withdrawal will unhinge markets further. Oil prices for me trend upwards this year (i.e. above $100) chiefly because Iran is the problem that is not being resolved fast enough.

In Kenya, inflation will trend southwards, though not as fast as economist opine. The rains that came in November/December have impacted the food regions differently and though food will be cheaper, it won't as cheap as opined. Finally, interest rates. Banks reacted naturally to avoid a massive npl problem and lengthened the repayment periods, but a Kenyan who had a loan in August now has more liabilities than he/she envisaged. For the tightening not to become another monetary policy screw up, its imperative that the governor and his MPC team reverse the interest rate increases by March at the latest.

Assuming the above holds, I expect the NSE not to trouble 3,500 with exception of the period between now and March reporting season. I will be looking at the following stocks:

• Car & General-has an expansive product range and now has the regional coverage to cater for pretty the whole of EAC and the horn. Clearly, it does feel the pain of any fx volatility, but its products have a strong future as the regional economies all grow and consumption grows.
• Centum, there are some who are sceptical about what James Mworia is doing, but I am convinced that by 2014, this stock will look very cheap compared to a Ksh12.50 entry price.
• Crown Berger-as I have said elsewhere, real estate growth will resume next year with a vengeance and this paint seller is well placed in this market.
• Equity remains a stand out in the banking sector. The agency banking model is still not being felt, but if you talk to saccos you get the idea that many realise what this model is doing which is to pitch the battle for deposits at their level. As a general comment, I think that if the credit spread control is brought, it will impact those banks that are heavily dependant on interest income. Equity still derives a bigger chunk from F&C compared to rivals.
• Eagaads-only NSE that gives exposure to coffee. The crop is not being stolen because its become edible, but because the price per kg is now comfortably around Ksh130, For farmers. Eagadds is able to get a premium over this. Secondly, Eagadds has very good real estate in the sort after Kiambu county.

CMC: clear the fog

It is said in war, the first casualty is truth/facts.

These are gaps in the information:

1. Peter Muthoka was selected chair in May and the BoD had all the information they have today, why didn't the conflict of interest issue arise then?
2. Why did Bill Lay announce he was retiring from GM whilst denying he was doing so to fill the vacancy at CMC? Why did he jump from a big player to a smaller player (in market share terms)?
3. If the apparent fraud is over-invoicing, why isn't the ex-FD and ex-CEO also in the dock here given that it is the responsibility of the payer to verify the invoice? Why isn't the auditor also in the dock since this would be part of its attestation?
4. If the fraud is charging above what other players in the market (say GM) are charged, (a) that is not fraud (b) his contract would presumably have been verified by the BoD (which has included among other Joel Kibe)...
5. Andy Forwarders (Peter Muthoka's business) also manages GM's supply chain and those of others, why would he charge CMC more? AFS has been supplying CMC for 17 years, why is the issue limited to 5 years?
6. If as rumoured, Peter Muthoka was opposed to Bill Lay's appointment, is this merely the continuation of boardroom wars.
7. If corporate governance is the issue, why not go all the way and require BoD to be composed of more independent directors instead of shareholders as it now is (with exception of the banks)?

CMC-a brief history:

Cooper Motor Co. started life as a retail outlet for Land Rovers/VW during the wabeberu days and today pretty much covers the whole upper class, settled middle class. During the Africanisation programme of the 1970s, it got some of the newly minted Kenyans on-board. In effect most of the plutocracy formed themselves into two chamas, Heri and Africa Liaison Company (Mwai and Moi were members as well as Njonjo). Overtime, Alico birthed other smaller entities among them Kingsway Nominees (which now know more as a Jeremiah Kiereni front). As with TCL today, the primary purpose of these chamas was to amass solid businesses such as CFC and CMC and also create some such as Heritage Insurance and so forth. Apart from their "financial nous", these elite gave their invesmens direct access to contracts. They'd then hire competent managers (usually a mzungu or mhindi) to manage the turnover and do the counting. Martin Foster joined as a Sales Director in 1978 stayed on and became CEO 8 years later and was virtually there until this year. The BoD effectively the bedrock on which Forster was pure old boys. Up until two or so years ago, everybody was over 60yrs.

However, over the last few years, they have all reduced their shareholding allowing the likes of Mobicom, Peter Muthoka to takeover the reigns and its apparent that this is a battle for who between Mobicom and Peter will control CMC. CMC currently holds just under 20% of motor sector market share behind Toyota and GM.

Simple guide to NSE's latest IPOs

Firstly an analogy. I tend to compare IPOs to a ball being thrown in a pool of water. Generally, the deep the pool of water, the higher a ball bounces off the water. Assuming it’s a fully pressurized ball.

TC formerly known as G29. This entity inspired me to start an investment group and I believe the harambee spirit embedded in chamas will get us further than we have envisaged. At a listing p/e of 35 you can see why it was introduced despite requiring capital. In contrast, Centum, the other investing firm at the NSE traded a multiple of 10.3. the other downside of TC is a portfolio of underwhelming assets with only EA Cables as the pick stock. Verdict: terribly overpriced.

Britak is a firm I’ve long tried to figure out how to buy pre-IPO shares in, but the IPO is where my interest ended. Normally, insurance firms have very steady income unless there are catastrophic one-off events such as earthquakes or PEV in our case. Britak made losses in 2009, record profits in 2010 and is projecting 62% drop in profitability for 2011. Can Britak do better with your money than it has done with its own? It would like to take circa Ksh0.6bn from you. Verdict: fully priced, there is no meat remaining on the bone.

Finally, in the forthcoming bucket, there is Family Bank’s introduction to the NSE. Many of its shareholders including this senor think this is Family bank’s theme tune “we’ll list this year, we’ll list this year”. We will believe it when we see it. It is said that imitation is the sheerest form of flattery and Family bank has really really flattered Equity. The Japanese copied the US, forgot their prudence and their economy became a zombie, so cautionary tale right there. In commerce, you must chart your own way, though. That won’t happen at Family unless Kiondo is persuaded to retire and either give his son (he of the thin CV), the reins or reduce his attachment to the bank and let corporate governance take root hold without a gun being stuck into his ribs by CBK. Corporate governance would mean a strong CEO shepherded by strong anchor shareholders (maybe Equity?). Facts, facts. Kiondo opened the door in 1984, Munga in 1984. The both target the same market. In 2010, Family's PBT was a 1/20th that of Equity! Verdict: introduction will excite, but do note that it will be the least profitable bank at ze bourse.

NSE: Observe its cycle

With the exception of the pre-multiparty years and the first Baba Jimmy era (as an aside I'm totally convinved that Baby Jimmy was told he'd be the 1st president never to have done 2 terms and he ahd to do 2 terms irrespective hence PEV), the NSE has always follows the same pattern. As soon as a General Election is concluded, investors of every hue and persuasion flood in. For the next 4 years and despite several ups, the NSE index maintains an upward trajectory. Then investors and their volumes flee the market in the year of general election.

Why is this and why was 2002-7 period the exception?

Quite simply because, despite a 40m population (60% barely plugged into the economy), we still eat, walk and sleep politics. In Kenya, good politics=good economy and not vice versa as you'd find in most developed countries. In 2007, Kenyans thought it'd be a walkover for Raila and as such everybody kept their money in the NSE or were too pre-occupied with the NSE bullrun.

Given PEV at the start of this 2008-12 political term and consequent political; the ongoing rain short-fall; the out of his depth CBK governor; relatively high oil prices, cycle will be followed to the t.