NSE weekly catch up

Market slowed down this week as the bear rally came and went. Is averaging down a investment strategy that is hugely propounded on our bourse an emotional feelgood strategy or investment nonsense?

Results:

AK came in 65% higher than 2007 with increased corporate clientelle and also expansion into the residential market. 2009 will the blockbuster year for this listed ICT firm. Once fibre optic lands, the game will change because revenue per client will come under challenge from compe and the firm will thus need to significantly increase its client base. Ksh0.4 DPS awaits the lucky shareholder in the books as at June 18th. IMHO, this will be one of the shareprice performers of 2009.

Pan African Insurance was driven to distraction and Ksh100m loss by its associate investment company. Significant challenges ahead though its trying to diversify into property.

Standard Group, the mother and father of distinguished gems such as KTN, Standard newspaper et al clocked 19% PAT growth driven by 8% turnover growth. Cashflow remains negative therefore no DPS. Going forward, the group is targetting the launch of a radio station in Q3.

Macroview: UN has increased its food aid plea for Kenya. We are well into March and the anticipated heavy rainfall season remains patchy at best.

Other markets:

Excellent week at the FTSE. We have our first black CEO in the FTSE 100! Tidjane Thiam, a former Ivorian Coast cabinet minister will head PRU, one the largest insurers in the world. And Barclays is up on last week :-)

Have you invested in LUSE? Do so to take advantage of future higher copper prices.

Will Geithner last? Because the way I see it, its either he shapes or goes or Obama will be a first-term goner. The global economy doesn't like a rabbit in the headlights Secretary of Treasury...

The Gartman Letter has been whipping WB black and blue this week. Not happy with the credit rating downgrade and reckons Berkshire Hathaway is an overvalued stock. That is on a 5yr low. Still, I think WB has proven himself.

NSE weekly catch up: signs of maturing bourse

NSE eased down towards the latter part of the week and continues hoevering at 3,400 level ahead of the results season which should kick off in earnest in the first week of Feb. We might have a small rally towards 4,000 before easing back in April.

CMC released its results for its financial year which closed in September (btw, I always thought that the NSE/CMA vigorously enforce the 3 month window for results announcement). Kenyans are still buying cars. PAT was up 50% helped by a strong jaw effect (revenue-27% growing much faster than costs-6.2%). CMC has 18% of the mwananchi car market, so I am assuming it derives most of its revenue from higher market share in buses and tractors. I don't see it having as strong a year in 2009 given macroevents. DPS went up to Ksh0.45 equating to a 3% dividend yield at close of play on Friday-okay for a growth company. Books for the dividend close end of Jan.. .

KCB's share price seems to have gotten away with just small scratches despite its debacle with Triton. However, Africa Alliance downgraded its earnings outlook for 2009 by 36%! About the maturing NSE, this was first time in a while that live news transmitted to instant price changes so transaprently.

Macro: Kenyan analyst confirmed the lower growth expectations for 2009. We are sending a huge delegation to watch tv in the US while appealing for food aid.

LUSE remains weak and subdued.

FTSE: Short selling is back as of yesterday and banks took a terrible pasting as short sellers flooded in in earnest. The other reason is that credit crunch is now on mainstreet with job losses feeding into bad debs. And Bank of America has this week discovered that it bought the wrong bank.

LUSE-why now, what to buy and how?

A few good reasons:
Weak Kwacha: when I first started looking at opportunities there, I was getting around 6800, now its 7400. To the pound. If you are doing $ or Ksh, its even better.

• Its not just Ghana that had succesive African elections. By any standards (I don't who sets them), the el;ction went well and despite the opposition complaining (and they always do even Hillary Clinton and McCain murmured about this or the other), Zambians were able to move one from death via peaceful election. Next elections are 2011...


• Copper and other minerals: Zambia is rich in copper and cobalt. The fall in prices of some of these commodities is temporary driven by brief lull in China's economy (though the Swiss are its main export partners according to CIA's factbook) and deliveraging. Clearly, leverage won't ever reach the 2007 levels, but China and the other BRIC countries will resume growth path. The country is also developing tourism around the Victoria falls and game parks.


• Prices are genuinely under valued: I will cover specific stocks in another post

Reasons not to:

Adverse impact of falling copper prices now being seen in mine closures. Economy may take a break this year. Illiquid market. Selling at choice price might be an issue. FX rates: the converse of above might be true

I use stockbrokersszambia, who are very efficient in account opening and who do send daily/weekly and monthly reports and the occasional results announcement.