NSE catch up

Slight recovery this week or taking of positions before Co-op is downloaded on 22nd? Unless investors are reacting to the lowering of cash ratios and anticipated drop in inflation, its hard to see where a recovery is coming from. The other reason could be investors buying early before the expected rise in the March results season.
Other themes:

• Brokers in trouble: This is not breaking news but lower volumes are now manifesting themselves in brokers laying off staff and being massively in the red. Licence renewals are due shortly so lets wait and see how many Stella Kalonzo witholds.
• Everready not ready: Profits down by 118% due to lower sales. Cash flow looks better though still positive and it'll be helped by lower Zinc prices. Why doesn't just sign an agreement to do distribution of Chinese batteries? Centum still has a stake...
• Kenya Pipeline is finally contemplating listing. Good news... Though the 2008 numbers aren't making good reading, the dividend is something else.

Macro thoughts: I was puzzled by CBK's move last week given its rosy pictures and also current inflation levels. Jimnah's widely publicised article now makes the CBK action add up. The economy as I've intimated is in trouble. Some of his ideas make sense (expansion of public works), others are just self-serving and hypocritical (he was lead broker/advisor et al on Safcom IPO) and others don't make sense (controls on offshore investing). Bottomline, gova is broke so opening t-bills to a wider audience makes sense. Inflation remains a concern because there is no real evidence that agricultural supplies are improving and oil prices do remain sticky. I expect the economy in 2009 to grow at a similar to this year.

D&B new website, new sheriff in town & KPA IPO

In practical terms, D&B's earlier website was good because it fairly easy to navigate. What has always been my issue with D&B is the speed and quality of its customer service. Hope that is also given a new coat of painting.


Hope Mwakwere realises there is a new sheriff in town. He is officially the worst performing minister in the history of Kenya. A complete and utter waste of taxpayer's money. If there must a be a minister from the coast on the PNU side, lets try somebody else. I think if there was ever going to be an effective PM-post, then it'd have a required a strong personality who can set an agenda for how and what the post should do. If only GoK could also think about reducing the cabinet numbers, we'd be well on our way.
Why not list KPA? Apart from reducing the political dimension somewhat because investors won't put up with people like Mwakwere recommending who should its CEO, it'll give another fund-raising option.

Mind you, with the way Safaricom is going, Kenyans may steer away from GoK OFS in future. I am worried that its rate of depreciation may mean I have to re-write this post. Although supply has been cited as the biggest issue, I'd actually say its the realisation that it doesn't have a goods investor relations team. Econet has been pushed back and I doubt if it'll have the cash to compete and neither will Telkom. Still, I've sold my small holding just in case things go below IPO price (or rather below Ksh5.10 which is the breakeven point).

KQ, minted stockbrockers, REITS

It doesn't rain, it pours is apparently KQ's new mission statement. OK, things have been tough because of the political quagmire, lakini, its managed to lose practically its top management with no CFO; HR director(i hear there was a change); commercial director; no flights manager; no technical director. Do they all know something that we don't? Now even Paris flights are a
are likely losing it money. I have posted before on its pre-crisis issues. I passionately believe in KQ, but we now need a change of leadership, because that is where
the buck stops. Let it get someone who can steer it through the next year operationally so it'll be ready as the economy takes off.
For every Francis Thuo and Nyaga stockbrokers, there is a D&B and CFC, two brokers that though not on the straight and narrow take home some serious revenue from buying and selling yours and my shares. Stockbroking should be the one business in Kenya that should bankable year on year if you don't do anything stupid. Truly, IF is a big word.
It’s pleasantly surprising to see that Rutleys still plans to go ahead with its property fund and may even list as a REIT
if and when CMA wakes up from its slumber and decides to allow them. Bora Capital another property fund venture has gone quite despite interest from
many including in the Diaspora.