Saturday, December 06, 2008

NSE catch up: ATS hitch defies orthodoxy, new IPO, macro changes

Unlike most recent ATS hitches, the one this week hasn't led to the NSE shooting up immediately. However several shares that normally rise after such an event did so, saw I do expect a little rise in the earlier part of next week.
DPL Festive (yes, same question I asked) plans to do a small ksh500m IPO in Q1 of 2009. The bakery firm is planning to use the proceeds to expand and apparently posted 40% rise in profit before tax for its last financial year. One of WB's rules is that you should at least have sampled or know the products of the share you are about to buy... And read the prospectus when it comes out.

Mumias did its usual song and dance excuses after profits fell again. I am sure its an excellent share with great potential, but I'll change my mind about it when I at least see lower costs.

9 month CFC Stanbic results are now available and shows PBT at Ksh746m. Apparently, it was very difficult to get the separate 9 months numbers for CFC and Stanbic and add them together to give us the comparative year on year piece.
Olympia saw PBT fall as it moves to re-position itself. Yet again.

Macro view: Several developments this. Inflation is now upto 29.4%. Despite this, CBK lowered banks' reserve ratio (to effectively give banks room to lend more to the wider economy) earlier in week! If you recall, inflation was running at allowed 12% in 2007 and at that time the issue was money supply. The only reason I can think of CBK doing this is it anticipates inflation dropping drastically in 2009...Oil prices are down and so is electricity and food, but will inflation drop that quickly especially now more money will be circulating in the economy?

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