NSE weekly catch up-bottom found?

Another solid week at the bourse with the NSE index up marginally. Whether we have priced in all the bad news is something I remain sceptical about. I think NSE tends to price in with a lag and hasn't for example been taking into account the food and weather forecast for 2009.

Corporate Announcements and Actions:

NMG finally announced 2008 results. Was up 19% on 2007 driven primarily by strong cost control. Ksh4 DPS will be paid in May. I think this might be a tough year for it from the advertising point of view.

Co-op has bought 60% of Bob Matthews and is thus a stockbroker as well as its other businesses. The new broker will be the un/fortunately monikered Kingdom Securities. Imho, broking is a good easy business in Kenya. If your operational risk monitoring, prevention and detection is world class. Otherwise, there maybe cause to regret, moneterily and reputationally a few years down the road.

Hence Equity's well-known aversion to actually acquiring a broker licence. It held its AGM on Thursday to confirm the 3.9bn shares spilt-thingy, regional footprint/expansion and precious little on HFCK. I see HFCK as its potential achilles heel.

EA Portland has finally taken a hedge on its Ksh1.7bn loan from Japan. That took 5 years. And it still has Ksh3bn to go before paying off the loan...

USE:
Stanbic announced 48% rise in PAT from 2007 driven by 20% income growth agianst 5% cost growth. However, it also reduced DPS by 11% to be paid in June.

FTSE: Ended higher as Geithner's plan was being digested. MHO, I think the plan hinges on whether the banks will accept to sell toxic assets at throwaway prices. I prematurely exited Barclays after booking 100%gain only to see the UK gova give it a clean bill of health thus making price go up 24% yesterday! Waiting for end quarter profit taking.

NSE weekly catchup: some good news

The good news is that stocks are getting cheap at the NSE. Better news is they may yet get much cheaper-Nigerian banks P/Es are half for those of Kenyan banks. Sadly, the brokers just don't know what time of the day it is. How does this answer the fears of investors who know brokers are broke (but how broke?), and if they could eat when commissions were rolling in will not spare any investors’ cash? Saying you are going to do what you had said you were going to do in 2007 doesn't constitute change. If somebody knows you are likely to partake in what is not yours, it requires changes to this particular habit for them to be convinced into dealing with you...That or you move away. Bob Matthews now in the frame . NK next week? One of the more …suggestions I’ve heard is for GoK to do a bail-out of the NSE. Please, we have IDPs sleeping rough, 10m starving. So how do us investors (who can spare some cash to invest), get in front of the queue?

Full Year Results:
KCB was prudent on loan loss provisioning. And it seems like it’s been prudent about Triton and may have taken Ksh1bn (my assumption is that its Ksh1bn and not Ksh2.2bn originally mentioned) into the P&L. Viewed in this light, I have even a stronger supposition that BBK has not been prudent with its LLPs. KCB showed its strength by the fact that it still managed 40% on 2007. Other good things of note is the flat staff costs meaning that cost income ratio (if you remove Triton from the equation) remains on a downward path. KCB’s DPS is Ksh1. Equity>DTB>KCB>NIC>Stanchart>Co-op>BBK remains my bank share preference order at the NSE.
Bamburi- PAT down 11% due to a one-off hit for an insurance claim of Ksh1bn. Otherwise, gross profit was up 10% on a 24% turnover growth. Numbers are steady and as per expected and Bamburi also has supportive cash flows. DPS of 2.80 will be paid in July for those in books on 27th March.
East Africa Portland made a Ksh400m loss due to the Japanese loan (turnover was up 8%). Probably one of the worst run listed firms-it has had this loan since 2004 with attendant volatility in P&L and nobody has figured out how to deal with it…
BAT-PAT up 23% and the final Ksh12.50 DPS will be paid in April. Tempting but no tobacco for me.

Interims:
KenGen had a torrid 1st half of the year and now trades below IPO another crucial pointer to where we are at. Revenue was up 40% but was undermined by fuel costs going up 3times to Ksh4.7bn (oil prices were lower but it required more due to low water levels). PAT was down 33% therefore not a recoverable position.
KPLC-Excellent 53% growth in PAT supported by strong revnues (though Ksh1bn is fuel recoveries i.e opposite of KenGen). DPS will remain small however because of the preferred shares. Looks good for FY.
Carbacid also reported 31% growth in profits on strong sales. The share remains suspended which is a nonsense really.


FTSE:
Barclays had upward momentum after HSBC's exploratory announcement of a rights issue, but then came back down (thankfully for me), once Lloyds TSB confirmed the bad numbers at HBOS and that it still hadn't agreed to pay a fee for gova to take its toxic.

Macroview:
In 1963, Kenya had a population 8.9million. Today it’s circa 40m; by 2030 it’ll probably be around 60million. And we still lack urgency?
Last word: To Obama, verily I say unto you, the bitterest medicine is the most portent. We are all socialists now. Americans need to join the party. Sharpish.

Results Update

BBK announced frankly disappointing looking numbers and will be the worst among the listed banks (blog on this later). However, if one adjusts for the Ksh1bn spent on new branches and increasing ATMs, the numbers look okish. Apart from bad debts in 2008, the other is issue of concern is that potentially, there will be continually higher staff costs from the additional 4,000 staff.

StanChart has pleasantly surprised with a 32% rise from 2006 driven by FX and Other commissions. Moreover, its been a great year if you are a shareholder of StanChart because adjusting for the shareprice differences, it has a superior div yield and its share price appreciation
 is similar to BBK's . Even better for us NIC shareholders.  NIC hit 63% rise.
Bamburi saw very strong results on 34% rise in turnover but had Ksh2m wiped of its cashflow due to clinker expenses. It paid a very good dividend for the yr though at Ksh6.

Also announcing interim and others were KPLC, EA Portland (54% down on costs from Clinker), KRe got hit by higher claims but saw 9% rise in PAT due to lower tax rate ; KPLC saw flat turnover and hence slight PAT rise (4%).

NSE-Slow climb; KenGen bad & Mumias good

Despite forthcoming elections and uncertainties thereof and the rumbling train of Safaricom, investors continue to pour into shares. Most of this is driven by the on-going results season and should peter beyond that.

KenGen, announced disappointing numbers. Whether the impact of the tax is one-off or is on-going (they have a deferred tax charge of Ksh5.6bn which will have to be released back into the P&L over time. Given their heavy investment programme, I think its bit irresponsible of them to increase their dividend payout. I guess GoK needs the doh. The fall in its share price will probably reflect this
City Trust announced excellent full year followed by a sweetener dividend Ksh3.75) and predictably a 1 for 4 bonus issue. For my money, this stock has had more insider-dealing than any other this year.
Good news for holders of the Mumias (dudes when you going to have a website?). The COMESA waiver has been extended another 4 years!
EA Portland also released FY and saw flat PAT and PBT with sales not really improving from prior year. I guess shareholders at least have the likely merger to look forward to.
Safaricon still has that whiff of controversy everyway you look. Now Vodafone are threatening to delay the IPO unless GoK signs some agreement. My view is it shouldn't happen until we know who is Mobilete aand there is some agreement as to how Mobiltelea will compensate Kenya for its shareholding-corruption was involved so that is that for me. If the IPO does go ahead, lets have all 25% being NSE-listed. The argument about foreign exposure is neither here not there.

2007 UPCOMING GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES

Kenya RE IPO
Dyer and Blair is the Lead Transaction advisor in the privatization of the Kenya RE Corporation. The Government of Kenya owns 100% of Kenya Re and intends to sell 40% of its shares. Kenya RE is undergoing a re-organization to reduce costs, improve processes and diversify its income stream. It made a profit of Kes: 461M in 2005 as compared to Kes: 452M previously. The IPO is slated for March 2007.

SAFARICOM: Kenya's most Profitable Company.
Having made a profit of over Sh. 12 billion last year, Safaricom is one of the fastest growing companies in Kenya and it’s riding higher. Safaricom valued at over Kshs: 200 Billion will offload at least 25% of its shareholding probably mid 2007.

Telcom Kenya
The government intend to sell about 34 per cent of its shares through an IPO around Sept 2007.


East African Portland Cement:
Lafarge and the Government to offload more shares to the public to reduce their holdings, and increase the total number of shares traded to the 25% required by CMA for listed companies.Lafarge holds 41.7% in EA Portland and 73% in Bamburi Cement. likely IPO is about end of the year.

Kengen:
The government plans to offload a further 19% to the public in June 2007. Around 400 Million shares reducing its stake to 51%.

FAMILY FINANCE BUILDING SOCIETY (BANK)
Soon to be Family Bank is one of the leading microfinance institutions in Kenya and is now offering 15,000,000 Million Share at Kes:60.00 per share (minimum of 500 shares). The share offer is by private placement and a subsequently IPO or like EQUITY BANK did. One need to be an account holder with family finance to be able to purchase the shares.

SAROVA GROUP
Owns a portifolio of profit making hotels chain in Eastern Africa.

Co-op Bank
Already selling their shares through private placement @100 per share
Profit making and available in many parts of the country.

(Other romoured IPO's include):

Sadolin paint-

Adopt-a-light-biggest outdoor advertiser in kenya, involved in road signing too.

Orion EA-sells agricultral chemicals in East Africa.

Triple A Capital-

More information will be provided about the above.