Saturday, February 28, 2009

NSE weekly catchup: some good news

The good news is that stocks are getting cheap at the NSE. Better news is they may yet get much cheaper-Nigerian banks P/Es are half for those of Kenyan banks. Sadly, the brokers just don't know what time of the day it is. How does this answer the fears of investors who know brokers are broke (but how broke?), and if they could eat when commissions were rolling in will not spare any investors’ cash? Saying you are going to do what you had said you were going to do in 2007 doesn't constitute change. If somebody knows you are likely to partake in what is not yours, it requires changes to this particular habit for them to be convinced into dealing with you...That or you move away. Bob Matthews now in the frame . NK next week? One of the more …suggestions I’ve heard is for GoK to do a bail-out of the NSE. Please, we have IDPs sleeping rough, 10m starving. So how do us investors (who can spare some cash to invest), get in front of the queue?

Full Year Results:
KCB was prudent on loan loss provisioning. And it seems like it’s been prudent about Triton and may have taken Ksh1bn (my assumption is that its Ksh1bn and not Ksh2.2bn originally mentioned) into the P&L. Viewed in this light, I have even a stronger supposition that BBK has not been prudent with its LLPs. KCB showed its strength by the fact that it still managed 40% on 2007. Other good things of note is the flat staff costs meaning that cost income ratio (if you remove Triton from the equation) remains on a downward path. KCB’s DPS is Ksh1. Equity>DTB>KCB>NIC>Stanchart>Co-op>BBK remains my bank share preference order at the NSE.
Bamburi- PAT down 11% due to a one-off hit for an insurance claim of Ksh1bn. Otherwise, gross profit was up 10% on a 24% turnover growth. Numbers are steady and as per expected and Bamburi also has supportive cash flows. DPS of 2.80 will be paid in July for those in books on 27th March.
East Africa Portland made a Ksh400m loss due to the Japanese loan (turnover was up 8%). Probably one of the worst run listed firms-it has had this loan since 2004 with attendant volatility in P&L and nobody has figured out how to deal with it…
BAT-PAT up 23% and the final Ksh12.50 DPS will be paid in April. Tempting but no tobacco for me.

KenGen had a torrid 1st half of the year and now trades below IPO another crucial pointer to where we are at. Revenue was up 40% but was undermined by fuel costs going up 3times to Ksh4.7bn (oil prices were lower but it required more due to low water levels). PAT was down 33% therefore not a recoverable position.
KPLC-Excellent 53% growth in PAT supported by strong revnues (though Ksh1bn is fuel recoveries i.e opposite of KenGen). DPS will remain small however because of the preferred shares. Looks good for FY.
Carbacid also reported 31% growth in profits on strong sales. The share remains suspended which is a nonsense really.

Barclays had upward momentum after HSBC's exploratory announcement of a rights issue, but then came back down (thankfully for me), once Lloyds TSB confirmed the bad numbers at HBOS and that it still hadn't agreed to pay a fee for gova to take its toxic.

In 1963, Kenya had a population 8.9million. Today it’s circa 40m; by 2030 it’ll probably be around 60million. And we still lack urgency?
Last word: To Obama, verily I say unto you, the bitterest medicine is the most portent. We are all socialists now. Americans need to join the party. Sharpish.


coldtusker said...

Do you trust Nigerian bank's books?

I am not on the same page... I would rather buy BBK at a 10 PE than a 'local' Nigerian bank at 4 PE

MainaT said...

CT-Honestly. I actually do as much as I trust ours. And don't forget that for a foreigner without the cultural understanding of either countries that we have, the P/E will be the guideline number.
PS- I don't know if you read but George Soros is looking to invest into Nigerian banks

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