Saturday, February 14, 2009

NSE weekly catch up: Equity, EA Cables release FY

Another low week (2,848 close), but I think Equity has brought a little cheer back into the bourse and will spar some little upward momentum for a few weeks. BBK announces on Tuesday and EABL announces interim numbers on Friday and KCB possibly the Friday after. On the negative side of the account, the Nyaga saga has really exposed us to what many of us feared was going on and from now onwards, no conspiracy will sound too outlandish. Some very practical steps for safeguarding your
NSE pocket. No more calling broker dealers to place your orders, it was always there but its become a convenient way for dealers to eat your funds. Like JM's comment too.

EA Cables announced full year PAT of Ksh462m, 12% higher than prior year. Its a good result given the challenges rote by high copper and aluminium prices, high utility (elecritricity and fuel) costs and and a very competitive market in a generally lacklustre economic year. Its strategy to spread into the rest of EA actually held it in good stead. For 2009, with much lower commodity prices, I'd expect to 20%+ year on year growth. DPS will be Ksh1, 10% higher than prior year.

Equity's FY is analysed here. It bears repeating. Non-shareholders might be happy at a chance to get the stock at very low prices, but for us existing shareholders, it leaves us cold because it adds risk that wasn't really necessary. The history of spilts at the NSE is almost exclusively a bearish one.
Unga saw 33% turnover growth apparently wiped out by fx and will miss FY by 25%. Very strange especially as one would assume scarcity in maize would equate to better gross margins.

Other Markets:
Gold is fast approaching $1,000 as investors survey other instruments' waastelands. FTSE is in a bit of a lull at the moment. I think many were hoping for greater detail around the Obama plan which as yet seems as muddled as Hank Poulson's botch-up last year. Lloyds TSB is now caught in the short-sellers' sights following HBOS' update.


Maishinski said...

Dude, the Charts are awesome! Well done & keep doing what you do.

PWC has confirmed our earlier suspicions regarding manipulation.

To be honest, I thought I was being paranoid - but all "signs on ground" suggested something foul/fishy was going on.

Per Cockroach theory: If you see one Cockroach - it is almost certain there are many more lurking in the shadows. I strongly believe that the Nyagah reveleation is just a tip of the Iceberg. We're looking at a mega conspiracy to defraud wananchi.

All hope is not lost. We need Gov to move in QUICKLY and:

1. Make some high profile arrests & solid CONVICTIONS. Ili iwe funzo...

2. Borrow pieces of legislation from India/US/UK for stock market regulation - that would be applicable to Kenya. No need to reinvent the wheel (others have faced similar problems) - but also Gava can PRE_EMPT future issues (even more sophisticated) and seal all loopholes.

3. Give some teeth to regulators. EMPOWER Stella Kilonzo so that she has security of Tenure (subject to removal if a scandal ensures). Sacking her doesn't help. We have to understand her situation (she's dealing with very powerful and well connected thieves).

4. Automate. Let people login to their accounts and see what is going on. Let them set auto-alerts. Lets have T+0 same day settlement. Lets have Linkage with Banking systems such that TT transfers between Brokerage accounts and Bank accounts are user initiated.. etc etc! THIS IS NOT ROCKET SCIENCE AND KENYA IS READY - HAVING PASSED ICT BILL.

Na kwa hayo machache (lol)...

coldtusker said...

Unga: There is NO maize. The NCPB supplies the maize to its 'favoured' clients like jackson kibor.

Yep, JK gets 100,000 bags & he is NOT a miller but Unga doesn't get enough maize to run their mill for 5 days in a month!

coldtusker said...

Maishinski: You are waiting for the govt to do something?

They are idiots & thieves.

MainaT said...

Maishinski-no worries about the length of the post.
Lets forget about GoK's role. Its a hit and miss affair so its better we go Darwin's route.

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