Monday, February 02, 2009

Results season: Things to look out for

Most of the full year results will be released within this month and next. With this in mind, I'll be looking at for following in addition to the usual yoy growth in PBT, cash flow, debt.
  • Growth in other income: As long as CBK is determined to keep interest rates low and interest margins remain under pressure, banks need to diversify their income. Equity, KCB, StanChart and to some extent, NIC should see a very good year given entry into custody business by Equity and fx volatility for the other 3.
  • Loan loss provision-most banks grew loans hugely in 2007 compared to 2006. Then the economy ground to a halt in 2008 and has since not really resurrected. My expectation is that loan loss provision which in ordinary times accounts for an average of 1% of the listed banks total loans will account for around 3% of the additional loans that were given in 2007 vs 2006.
  • Risk management- given CBK's intentions on Basel 2and the world we are in now, this one will be of particular interest to me. Banks need to be clear about the risks they face and the contingency plans in place.
  • About time HFCK showed some positive momentum.
Of the other financials, PanAfric will have benefitted from its associate's strong showing in Q3.

Impact of higher oil, electricity prices and a weaker Ksh/$ rate, makes it harder to call this sector. ARM is of particular interest especially keen to know if its gaining cement market share against the two. EA Cable's 2nd half should much be improved given copper prices have gone through the floor.
Commercial and Services:
With the exception of TPS (will have a horrible yr given its start), the rest should as minimum not see lower than 10% growth compared to 2007. CMC and Car & General have already come through very strongly and it shouldn't be different for the others. AK is of particular interest as it needs to show momentum ahead of the fibre optic arrival in Q2-it will also be interesting to see how its residential business is doing.

Forward looking statements:
NSE shares rarely do this, but it would be good if counters gave a view on 2009.


coldtusker said...

It will be tough for most firms BUT the price drops have already been factored in many of the prices!

Mumias was already down before the announcement.

KQ was down to sub-30s. It's down to 25/- after today's profit warning.

BTW, the Daily Nation screwed up (& dragged me in it... remember my quest to find the 'actual' announcement)

odegle said...

how long do you estimate before we recover from twin issues of safcom IPO and election fracas. Am seeing a bigger boom than the one of 2003

coldtusker said...

OD: Ur being over-optimistic. 2009 will be tough... BUT great buys for the future.

MainaT said...

CT- I think prices will go up which is what I said in prior post. Some of this stuff I am looking for is because I think some shares will undersell the bad news.
Od-Why do you think we'll have a boom soon?