TPS Serena is recovering nicely from a tough 2008 and going by the visa queues at the Kenya High Comm recently, things should continue to improve.
StanChart surprised didn't it with an atypical 38% increase from H1 2008? The bottomline was driven by circa 24% growth in both interest income (and surprisingly nothing to do with govt securities despite the Ksh9bn increase) and F&C as well as flat expenses. In other words strong cost/income ratio. Capital ratios look tight. Still not a buy for me unless for dividend purposes (Ksh2.50 DPS will be paid in early Oct). NBK (an okay 11% uptick) and KCB also released some flat as a pancake PAT. Some high quotient analysis was done on the latter here. BBK's Adan Mohamed had a party after 5% rise on 2008 H1, but a couple of sobering points. Flat costs and vastly reduced loan loss provisions means there should have been a higher rise. But nothing came from the income side of the P&L. Finally, parent bank showed up with 8% rise despite a very challenging environment and did better than its rival clearing banks Lloyds TSB, HSBC. RBS may do better though.
ARM continues to defy high production costs with a 32% yoy increase in profits pegged on turnover growth of 16% and reduction in production costs. It remains despite its small 10% cement market the stock to watch out of the 3 cement sellers and infact one of the good picks from the NSE industrial stocks.
Olympia finally decided to announce its FY 2008 numbers. As expected, it rolled up with a loss though not as high as many of us had forecasted (Ksh56m). I suspect the numbers don't fit. For example, if you strip Ksh1bn for Plush, you leave Olympia where it was before it bought it. Smart...
Unlike most recent ATS hitches, the one this week hasn't led to the NSE shooting up immediately. However several shares that normally rise after such an event did so, saw I do expect a little rise in the earlier part of next week. DPL Festive (yes, same question I asked) plans to do a small ksh500m IPO in Q1 of 2009. The bakery firm is planning to use the proceeds to expand and apparently posted 40% rise in profit before tax for its last financial year. One of WB's rules is that you should at least have sampled or know the products of the share you are about to buy... And read the prospectus when it comes out.Mumias did its usual song and dance excuses after profits fell again. I am sure its an excellent share with great potential, but I'll change my mind about it when I at least see lower costs.9 month CFC Stanbic results are now available and shows PBT at Ksh746m. Apparently, it was very difficult to get the separate 9 months numbers for CFC and Stanbic and add them together to give us the comparative year on year piece.Olympia saw PBT fall as it moves to re-position itself. Yet again.Macro view: Several developments this. Inflation is now upto 29.4%. Despite this, CBK lowered banks' reserve ratio (to effectively give banks room to lend more to the wider economy) earlier in week! If you recall, inflation was running at allowed 12% in 2007 and at that time the issue was money supply. The only reason I can think of CBK doing this is it anticipates inflation dropping drastically in 2009...Oil prices are down and so is electricity and food, but will inflation drop that quickly especially now more money will be circulating in the economy?
Olympia announced 14 months worth of results. The results were a huge anticlimax for some of us who had even considered investing in this counter. PAT was up 10% compared to FY 2006 which is meagre considering the growth in turnover (tripled on a comparative basis). The other concern was that the wafer-thin margins seem not to have improved. A Ksh1.3bn turnover brings in Ksh70m of gross profit therefore the company must have very inefficient processes or may be acting as an importer/distributor. I suspect guys will continue flooding into the stock because of its SA link anticipating good tidings due to the world cup in 2010.Centum on the other hand has had a very good 9 months given the underlying volatility at the NSE and should be on course to come in slightly higher than prior yr. Not a counter I've thought of buying into given it does something similar to what an individual investor does only on a bigger scale.Williamson Tea (as is usual with agricultural stocks), this yr booked a loss of Ksh98m following profit in 2007 due to strong shillingi and depressed world tea prices (strange given all other commodities are up). This year might not be much better owing to drought in some of the tea-producing areas.
