Friday, January 09, 2009

LUSE-why now, what to buy and how?

A few good reasons:
Weak Kwacha: when I first started looking at opportunities there, I was getting around 6800, now its 7400. To the pound. If you are doing $ or Ksh, its even better.

  • Its not just Ghana that had succesive African elections. By any standards (I don't who sets them), the el;ction went well and despite the opposition complaining (and they always do even Hillary Clinton and McCain murmured about this or the other), Zambians were able to move one from death via peaceful election. Next elections are 2011...

  • Copper and other minerals: Zambia is rich in copper and cobalt. The fall in prices of some of these commodities is temporary driven by brief lull in China's economy (though the Swiss are its main export partners according to CIA's factbook) and deliveraging. Clearly, leverage won't ever reach the 2007 levels, but China and the other BRIC countries will resume growth path. The country is also developing tourism around the Victoria falls and game parks.

  • Prices are genuinely under valued: I will cover specific stocks in another post

Reasons not to:

Adverse impact of falling copper prices now being seen in mine closures. Economy may take a break this year. Illiquid market. Selling at choice price might be an issue. FX rates: the converse of above might be true

I use stockbrokersszambia, who are very efficient in account opening and who do send daily/weekly and monthly reports and the occasional results announcement.


coldtusker said...

Mon ami... if you were getting 68000 and now 7400 then ur suffering... (u have 1 extra zero)

BTW, I took a hit coz I has sent US$ there much earlier ;-(

MainaT said...


Riba Capital said...

MT: Be very careful with Zambia, the currency is extremely volatile and your stock gains could be eroded overnight by the movement in the Kwacha, I have been watching it for while from down South, however the market has taken a bit of a hit, though there is still opportunity..

MainaT said...

Tx Riba. The position I hold is targeting a particular event or failing that, I'll bail out next year so either way I think I am comfortable.