Monday, January 05, 2009

Pick of 16

Of the 16 companies that gova is talking about privatising i.e. introducing to private sector ethos, I'd say that this is the way they'll pan out.
Don't forget, GoK had a ksh127bn deficit when it did the budget, this was to be bridged by the Eurobond loan which won't now happen until uuh late 2010 at the earliest and it has had to take on higher contigency funding than planned for.
OFS:
KPC- PBT fell last year, but it does need to step up a gear perfomance-wise. Its monopoly so not sure if competitiion will be an issue for the foreseeable future
Development Bank-Already TC has a 10.7% stake in the bank, so I wonder if ICDC would in effect have to put the shares at NSE. Doing ok perfomance wise without being exciting. Its niche of long-term financing is now occupied by many other banks...
New KCC-though 2010 is more likely. And couldn't find a website so something for Mwangi to think about.
Consolidated Bank- again probably one for 2010, though GoK finances may force issues. Made Ksh25m in 07 and Ksh16m in '06 so I really don't see investors queuing up to grab a stake...

Strategic partners:
NBK-though doing well now, I doubt if it GoK can just offload additional shares in the market without it having a strategic partner who will help ease out Marimbi.

Consolidation category:
The sugar companies should be merged to see if economies of scale will alliviate the torrid state of play.
Kenya Meat Commission should look either to acquire players in the market or go new KCC way.

Diverstiture:
Kenya Wines, hotels owned by KTDA

7 comments:

bankelele said...

KPC would be of interest, can probably net 20 billion if well structured,
- KCC and KWAL maybe 5 billion each
- For the hotels and banks - NBK, Consolidated, Development, equity in them should be sold privately (but transparently) to institutions seeking entry to Kenya
- sugar companies, KMC are not saleable

MainaT said...

Agree apart from the transparent-bit. This gova is not capable...

coldtusker said...

Banks: How are you calculating the numbers?

Infrastructural plays generally sell below NAV unless there is a major rip-off (i.e. very favourable pricing power).

NBK is a public firm... perhaps the way to go is to sell large blocks on the market to get the best price... and those who want 'control' can fight over the shares...

Or a public auction... TRANSPARENT...

Sugar Firms - They were sold by auction... but the government back-tracked! Kenana Sugar was the buyer for 2 firms!

Riba Capital said...

MainaT: send me your email address, so that I can forward the docs to you..

Riba Capital said...

Maina, I have sent it to you.. cheers

MainaT said...

CT- I am assuming Banks is working with a P/E of just under 10 based on 2008's PAT which seems reasonable.
RC :-)better late than never...

bankelele said...

Riba Capital: send me docs too please?