Monday, June 30, 2008

NSE Stock Portfolio: 6 months into 2008

Generally, I haven't traded much this yr, not because of lacking opportunities, more because of a busy schedule elsewhere and an evolving strategy. From buying and holding for the whole presidential cycle, I am now more inclined to buy, and hold as long as the stocks are meeting the short-term mini-goals i.e. FY profits etc.

  1. During the January clashes: Equity@125, TPS@58 and Barclays@65
  2. Nation Media Group@326 just before it announced its results
  3. A few Safaricom during the IPO
Switched: after its Q1 results, sold-off my whole Barclays portfolio and switched into Equity@250 and Access Kenya@33.50

Overall Portfolio: Also includes ARM, KCB, NIC and EA Cables.
Overall trading from H1 2008: Very good returns....

Running the ruler over:
  • Nation Bank of Kenya
  • Safaricom while waiting to see if it'll get cheaper than ksh7.40.

PS: The above is my own personal stock-trading account. For KCIG, we outperformed the NSE for H1 2008




Just some advise from you: I am the Chairman of a new investment club and would really like to know which software do you use to track memebrs contributions, valuations, etc?


MainaT said...

We use Excel for the contributions and for the valuations. For the valuations, we've built a model that basically starts by valuing the initial units at a particular amount and uses this value as the base. In layman-terms, assume each members Ksh100 is worth one unit when the club starts, the value of this one unit will then either increase (when you make profits on your portfolio) or decrease (when you make losses).

In terms of shelf-ready made software for investment clubs, pro-share, have some recommendations. The only drawback is that they are mainly geared to investors in the FTSE.

ka-investor said...

I think being in more than 4 counter is over diversifying. But you are in all the good counters.

are you participating in the KCB rights issue?

MainaT said...

Kainvestor- I agree that I hold too many counters (optimal number for me is 6/7).
I am reviewing EA Cables and TPS. EA Cables, I need to see G29 will appoint as the new CEO to replace the almost irreplaceable Mugo Kibati. The share price has been stagnant since end of 2006 so clearly needs momentum-drivers.
TPS-I'm going with it for another 12 months to see if it'll fully recover.

bankelele said...

Congratulations on your retrurns this year and your courage/foresight in investing at a time when other investors were not. (esp. on TPSEA)

I've never felt the Equity or Acces kenya vibe while NBK is pure speculation

J K said...

MainT, I can see we suffer from the same disease, over diversification: I also wish to dump some in my portfolio but I just can't make myself sell at a loss and as soon I break even I will.

I am strongly in KCB, CMC, Mumias, Kenya RE, Safaricom, Total, Rea Vipingo and unbelievably KQ
As soon as I break even I want to exit in a hurry from, KENOL, TPSE,and BBK.

Earlier I held KENGEN, KPLC, EQUITY and SCAN all which made me amounts I can't complain about.

I seem to have missed the ACCESS bus.

MainaT said...

Banks-On TPS, it wasn't so much courage as the averaging (I bought my original shares at around Ksh71). I've always been puzzled why you being a banker have never taken on board Equity qualities. For me, its the only share in the world that I'd want to own a serious stake in.

MainaT said...

JK-What is you know that many don't on Mumias and RVP? Both are agricultura stocks which I tend to run a mile from due to the earnings fluctuations...

J K said...

@MainaT: REA has a generous Dividend policy plus it easily moves from around 18 to 22. I have permanent orders at 18 so in the short run I can salvage a 20% growth in capital gains.

Mumias: Here I am on a long haul. Initially I got in when I was conned by our guy currently under siege when he off loaded it to the market at 49.5[pre-bonus 2:1]. This was at the peak of the bull run at the NSE in 2006 and everybody believed that Mumias would easily move to 80's. Well it didn't, but instead plummeted to below half my buying cost. I decided to leverage and heavily bought at the 20's range before the bonus issue. Lately with power generation and the TARDA issue almost seeing the light of the day plus COMESA's 5 year extension , I believe in the long run we have a gem here. I am currently buying heavily at 12sh range.