Saturday, October 18, 2008

NSE Update

NSE closed the week at 3,716, the lowest its been since 10th of June 2005. Yes, that is before any of the present run of IPOs that started with KenGen in 2006. Had you invested long-term at the NSE in these stocks, you'd be back to square one or losing.

-BAT, Crown Berger, Kakuzi, Kapchorua, KQ, Kenol, Limuru Tea,
Rea Vipingo, Sameer, TPS Serena, Total, Unga, Unilever, Williamson Tea-

So what is going to turn around the NSE?
  1. The global fear factor: is obviously something we can't really do much about. Those thinking that investors will switch into frontier markets are dreaming for the time being.
  2. Inflation-Means less disposable income therefore less to invest. Unlikely to go below 20 (key-level in my humble opinion), this side of 2008.
  3. BS broker shenanigans: This week's announcement at least shows somebody understands the impact this has on the NSE. Trust us Kenyans to know problem, its cause, its cure, and still sit around like lemmings. It'd help if us investors highlighted issues encountered openly. That way, those affected will be a smaller number.
  4. Supply: Okay CO-OP we've known about, but it might be nice to postpone any pending IPOs or supply increasing corporate actions for at least an yr.


Maishinski said...

The west:
- Right now they're sitting on Cash under the matress.
- Their economy is sliding into a recession.
- They cant bank the cash and sleep safely at night.
- They cant put it in the stock market.
- They can't diversify to other asset classes e.g. Property market (it's bust - remember?).
- the matress account doesnt give any interest.

dont forget.. inflation doesnt give a damn... its gonna eat any idle cash it finds in a matress account.

What to do? Only Frontier Markets offer potential for Superior Returns within relatively short timescales.

It's not gonna take long for some smart Havard graduate to figure this out.

When all is said and done, investing in Kenya is a safer bet at this moment in time. Just my personal opinion.

MainaT said...

Regulatory capital charge on emerging markets business is higher.

Ssembonge said...

I see that the NSE is diving to the 3,000 level. I see the next support level is around 3200 and after that it's 2,500.

Chances are the 3,200 level will hold but we've erased most of the post-NARC gains.