Investors hate uncertainty in the economy, the NSE (when Francis Thuo et al are not doing manipulations) is a good mirror of this. Right now the compe is between fundamentalist (long-term investors, buy-to-hold and appreciate economy) vs. analysts (speculators, focus on short performance). Analysts are winning on TPS Serena (its type of customers are not going to evaporate overnight) and losing out on other stocks (banking for example).
With our economy now starting to grow (as destructive as last week was to the economy, its not taken us back to the 2002 situation where we had so many holes in our economy, I am convinced the economy is strong enough to bounce), I am worried about the performance of two firms, KQ and Kenya Ports Authority. More about KQ later… but KPA seems to have a capacity problem which has been compounded by a more efficient KRA. Should it consider outsourcing some of its work?
The current political farrago has made politicians out of many a blogger. Many have subsequently engaged their hearts in an arena that requires a good dollop of brainpower. Many are also posting bar-talk in their blogs. The output is out there for all to see. There are exceptions however. Such as one by the name Silaha. Uniquely in blogworld, this guy is the only one who the got the election result correct (apart from Mutahi Ngunyi and some prophet Thomas Mason). His latest post on Kibaki’s move on Tuesday makes a lot of sense. Additionally, I think Kibaki is on his 2nd and last term and probably feels freer to exercise the sort of strong-man nonsense many Kenyans were crying out for in his first term.
Kenya has been dominated by two kinds of leaders (in the loosest sense of the word). Politicians and technocrats/businessmen. Kenyatta, Moi and Raila are all politicians the type who pull crowds talk nonsense mainly but have a sharp political brain. Mwai Kibaki, Michuki are all technocrats who are good at the doing, but are very poor communicators and rarely have sharp political brains. But is the old man about to show his political skills?
Obesity is a big issue in the UK. On public transport for example, seats that were designed to sit two adults comfortably can only sit one adult and a child. A very small child.
Americans invented opinion polls, but how bad were their predictions of how well Obama would do in New Hampshire?
7 comments:
Maina,
It took me a while to figure out why you were strongly defending Equity bank last year.
At least now I know where you are coming from.
The NH opinion polls were right on. The night before the polls Hilary openly wept and pleaded for votes on TV. This swung the women votes in her favor.
In the 2004, Howard Dean's drama backfired and caused him to lose.
I find raila talks loads of sense and doubt on Kibaki/michuki being technocrats. Also me think Kibaki/Moi have a lot in common than many admits. With michuki background, its better 5 railas than this guy.
Ssem-don't know what you mean about Equity so might be nice if you elaborate. My analysis of Equity as with this post are as an investor. Politics hold little interest for me.
Opinion polls moved by 13% in one day (remember some of the polls were showing Hilary to be 10% behind Obama)? BS.
JM-Nice balanced views.
MainaT
Thank you for the compliment though I hardly think I deserve it. I don't think I "called" the election outcome, I simply have an affection for real data and sober analysis, so I simply modeled ECK and opinion poll data with only one assumption of my own -- turnout. And I came out with Kibaki 44%, Raila 42% and Kalonzo 11%. With hindsight I would say that a number of Kalonzo supporters moved to their second best horse, Kibaki, to forestall a Raila win.
My crystal ball posting is of another kind. After closely, perhaps obsessively, following the goings on over the last few weeks there were things stewing in my mind and they suddenly became clear with Kibaki's cabinet announcement. However they are simply subjective projections of where I see things going. You cannot bank on them (I certainly won't). If anything they are best for elliciting a reaction.
I do agree with you that many people in the blogosphere are engaging with their hearts, or as a wrote in a comment on another blog a month ago "it appears many of us, especially ODM supporters, are working ourselves into a froth and taking temporary leave of our senses resulting in our engaging in hyperbole and emotional reasoning. Don't, it's very dangerous to do so."
On the economy, I agree with you that in most of the country the affairs of the last week will not have long lasting effects with one critical exception. The 'Kalenjin Triangle" area with apexes at Kitale, Kericho and Nakuru and centered at Eldoret where the clashes were the most vicious, will not recover quickly. That is the granary of the country so the effects will be felt throughout the economy.
-Silaha
p.s. Is your first paragraph complete?
Silaha, all i was doing was drawing peeps attention to a blog that has balanced views when many a Kenyan blogger doesn't know the meaning of the word currently.
Agree with you on the RV.
Maybe we aren't ready for democracy and need some sort of benevolent dictatorship a la singapore, Malaysia and Uganda?
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