- Agriculture: Especially horticulture will see lower sales as they deal with perishable goods. Most of the produce to supermarkets will not get to them thus lower sales. Milk may also not be collected. However, most of the listed companies in this sector deal in dry goods (tea leaves and coffee).
- Banking sector: Many are reliant on transaction volumes (generate commission) and of course lending. Lower transactions will be felt as their distribution networks for moving cash are not working. Lending will be a medium-term effect as companies assess the political situation
- Insurance companies: Will see higher than normal claims this yr and will probably be more affected than other sectors especially relating to buildings and contents and injuries. Jubilee and PanAfric are in the frame here.
- Oil sector: Loss of revenue due to lower sales will be the main impact. A limited number will also suffer re-building costs.
- Tourism: Will start feeling the effects if this goes into another week. As it is, UK holiday companies have suspended holiday bookings for two days.
- Industrial: Will be impacted by the inability to get necessary raw materials or distribute their products. A long-running crisis will see lower sales and concurrent higher costs (of maintaining machines). For the cement companies especially, they'll dread any adverse impact on consumers who may put off building plans. Mumias ought to be relatively unscathed apart from supplies to its wholesalers.
- Media: Should be doing well in present circumstances as Kenyans seek news, but their distribution networks across the nation will be impacted thus leading to lower sales. A longer crisis will impact advertising.
Friday, January 04, 2008
Economic Paralysis & the NSE
Most sectors of our economy are dependant on roads. Part of the plan it seems, is to paralysis the economy until some peeps get their way. Thus the current road blocks will impact them as per follows with impacts getting larger the longer the crisis goes on: