Thursday, January 31, 2008

Results update, NSE update

Haven't done a results update in a while. Many companies will or are reporting their FY results now. I expect the banks to start doing sometime early next month with trusty Equity out with its Ksh2bn PBT.

Is it time to start buying in the NSE? Maybe not while our politicians are still having tea/orange juice rather than taking the hard choices Kofi has asked them to. Can you imagine how difficult that will be for Kibz who is famously indecisive? The other elephant in the bourse is Safarciom OFs which I think the GoK is itching to bring to the market. The first will lead to continued uncertainty for investors. Uncertainty=falling prices in this situation. Safcom OFS will also see a slight dip in prices. Whether you go into the market within the next few weeks should depend on:

  1. Your risk appetite. This is a time for those who have cojones.
  2. Your risk-free funds i.e. those funds that you can afford to lose without losing your house/car/plot in the process.
  3. Your investment time horizon. The economy will probably take two years to get back to were we were on Dec 21st i.e. when guys were still going to work. So invest if you intend to harvest in 18 months or more.
  4. Whether you think a lasting political solution will be found- I am 60% certain they'll find one.
  5. Your believe about how long it'll take for them to find a solution
  6. Whether the solution will be sufficient to allow normal ecnomic activity e.g. farming, transport
  7. Those who speculate will still have opportunities to do so:
    Ø Earnings period such as now
    Ø Safcom IPO when you maybe able to buy at discounted price

One more thing: I have noticed that they are idiot Kenyans who want our economy to go down the toilet as long Kibaki is president. Why? Don't you have families in Kenya? And the "I blame Raila, I blame Kibaki" game is just tired. If you see your house on fire, I don't think you
run around looking for somebody to admit guilt while your house burns. Be part of the solution.

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