Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Portolio- 6month retrospective

This was me in Dec, I am here today:

Kenya:
Equity-remains unchanged. In any case I've now got many due to the spilt. Didn't really take advantage of the low of Ksh93, but would if it came around again. I like the focus on on augmenting regional income to 40% of total in the next 3-5 years.
Access Kenya- added some at Ksh20 and some at IPO price (was just great to see at that price). My average is now a healthy Ksh16 ffrom almost Ksh25 at one time. Will hold for a couple of years in the hope it get s bought.
Cash- still keeping some for any really attractively priced share.

Overall NSE view:
For anybody that was trading, the first half has been fabolous hunting ground on the NSE as I will show in a later post. My gut feel is that there isn't much momentum for the 2nd half of the year due to the bonds, possible IPOs (Consolidated, NSE are both slated for this year as is the bread maker) and I get a feeling that El Nina might be on the way.

Uganda:
Interested, in expanding portfolio from just Clay.

TZ:
DCB is a hold for a few years. In any case,I'll have to go to TZ to liquidate.

Zambia:
Sold Pamodzi Hotel at an fx loss of around 25%. Very illiquid share that I had bought with the thought of getting some kind of share spilt. Wapi.

FTSE:
Opened share trading account in earnest. Hoping to stay there until results season in 2010.
March and April were the wow months. Got via Barclays in mid-March doubled up in a couple of weeks, got out; got in again made another 50%. Jumped to RBS made similar.
May was the ouch month. Lost half my gains while pretending to be a day trader, full-time busy office worker, parent et al.
June was mostly boring until the last week. Up 5% down 5%. Very tedious especially when you are trying to get back to buy and hold.
Have learnt a similar amount to what I learned in 5/6 years at the NSE. A bird in hand is better than two in the bush; stock markets are legal pyramid schemes; get in when no one is interested; ignore broker recommendations; be fearless in buying and ignorant of past sell decisions.

Looking forward: have been tempted by China, oil, efts and will bite one of them. Plenty of other investment opportunities though the window is closing rapidly. Great business ideas but to need create time for them.

3 comments:

Ssembonge said...

Right now there is too much money sitting on the sidelines and thus there is no momentum in the market. Slight dips are met by furious buyers.

MainaT said...

Ssem- the worrying thing is that its mainly PI funds that are jumping at the mo.
We need sustained +ve news to get Institutional Investors to come in. Might be a quarter before they do.
Still an opportunity to get good positions

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