Saturday, June 20, 2009

NSE weekly: crucial next pt is post Q2 close, Olympia...

NSE was up almost 10% for the week on strong foreign buying. Top climbers were penny stocks such as Co-op (up 32% pre-dividend close) and MSC (up 19%, despite 73% fall in H1 profits). I think alot of investors are geting overexcited about co-generation which won't start revenue generation until 2010. ARM was up 24% being the pick construction stock. I am really waiting to say how its going to throw out the great Bamburi from its house with this being a first step. From all points of view, it doesn't make sense to have the kind of share-ownership that Bamburi has in its two main rivals. What happened in the 90s is history. One stock that has flown silently and fast under the radar is Crown Berger. I really like stocks with small amount of total shares and it is one (23m with only 6m floated). It has gone from Ksh10 in end February to close at Ksh29.50 jana. All well, I've now got it on my radar.

Next two weeks will be pivotal in signaling whether this is a bull with steady legs or an upside correction that will leave us swaying between 3-3,500. Next Friday should see fund managers exit to close books for half year. From there, it will increasingly become clear which shares are being ramped up and which are strong fundamentally. In addition to two of the above shares, I expect Equity to see some forward momentum in early part fo the week.

News, announcements and rumours:
Safcom continues to tidy up its broadband offering with jv/alliance with Jamii which will in effect save Safcom from having to cable up the city.
Rumours abound about the state of shambolic Olympic (once its was a furniture distributor with regional aspirations; next it became an investment firm; forever raising cash; etc) may be under some stress. Apparently,a single sourced SK-rumour suggests that Plush and Natwood, its businesses in SA have closed shop. Last time I got access to Olympia's website, Plush accounted for 50% of its turnover. I believe its full year results will have to be announced by close of play in June.

CMA rules announced over a year ago will now hopefully become law as they've been included in the recent budget.

Other markets-FTSE:
Some yo-yoing though at last data is out there showing we are over the absymmal era and now just in the bad. Banking stocks are not being helped by rating agencies being behind the curve as usual and issuing negative credit watch for a whole swathe of sector. Remains all-good though.


coldtusker said...

Crown Berger at 10/- was one of those snafus that the CMA did not act to fix in time.

Olympia: The less said the better. Still waiting for the EOY results. And actual & potential write-offs in 2009-10.

coldtusker said...

MainaT said...

Hapana, the crown berger thing dropped the share to Ksh24 and then the price never quite recovered.

OC-I've left a comment at your blog. I think this dude could be selling monkeys...