Saturday, April 04, 2009

NSE weekly - gently recovering

Equity pre-uploading of the extra 9 shares per account is almost up 90% from its Ksh9.3 low a month ago and as of yesterday close the index is up around20% from its low of the year. Still...how does one take a long-term view on the NSE given the econo-political side of the equation?
Results & Corporate Actions:
Kenol announced first results in its merged form and went up 20% on a 12 month basis. Note the ballooning finance costs partly due to the hostile business environment in Kenya. Generous DPS of Ksh3.50 payable in June. Oil industry can expect another tough year as it clears old stock and due to the economy.
Total its rival in the market, seems to have dealt better with its financing needs. PAT is up 34% on slight improvement in gross margins. Usual Ksh2.50 DPS will be paid in June.
ARM was up a disappointing 19% (and underperformed its budgeted Ksh442m), though fertilizer and its non-cement products are growing very well. Fuel and other input costs clearly played their part. DPS is Ksh1.25. Cement share in Kenya remains low so there is room for growth.
TPS had a terrible yr as expected with PAT down 46%. Notably however, turnover was only down 11%. Methinks 2009 maybe a flat yr owing to global crunch.
Centum confirmed writedown on RVR investment as well as effects of NSE falling (index fell 71% yoy to end of March). I suspect part of the problem looking at its portfolio is that it has a lot of filler i.e. stock that a good fund manager won't hold. A bit of a hospital pass for James Mworia from current NSE CEO.

PS: Are we going to catch up technologically in the NSE now fibre is here? Today you can't find one website where you can chart even the Index.

FTSE: breached psychologically important 4,000 mark.

7 comments:

uginvestor said...

just out of curiousity, why exactly didnt centum write off rvr 100% given the mess they are in?

coldtusker said...

ug: Based on what the other shareholders are willing to put in... the dilution of their stake was 80% or so..

coldtusker said...

MainaT: We are working on something to give you full charting BUT it will be at a fee. Can't find enough ads in this market to keep us going.

It is tough to figure out which model is best...

MainaT said...

Ug-as far as I know, RVR status is red. yani they may or may not get the contract to go fwd.
CT-fee for charting? For myself, I was only looking at this for convenience purpose, otherwise I can plot using data I get from daily market briefs. Re fee-paying, plse check what happened when NSE tried charging for live data. Rich.co.ke offered the same for free.

coldtusker said...

MainaT: We pay the NSE a hefty fee (as does Rich) for getting data. What is done is re-broadcast. I will blog on this later...

MainaT said...

Eagerly awaiting more on the same. Feel free to email details...

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