Saturday, November 29, 2008

NSE Update: CEO musical chairs

NSE continues the gentle journey south. There is nothing to suggest any upward movement until Co-op is listed and its volumes settle down. And of course, the usual upswing prior to full year results in March.

Centum saw
PAT down 17% for its half year to September vs.. prior year, not too bad given NSE was down. If CEO was still the same, it might have been worth buying at around ksh12, but now its worth waiting to see where it goes. Notice the very negative cash position. It bought Longhorn, but also made some disposals. Still, I now understand why the dividend was postponed to January. James Mworia who takes over in two weeks time clearly has his work cut out especially given Mwangi left due to strategic disagreements and we are stuck into sub-4000 levels for 2009 at least.Its a buy for me if below ksh10, though there are probably better prospects in the medium term.
KRA came up tramps to make
Total look good ahead of its expected purchase of Caltex .
Chris Mwebesa was appointed
CFC FS CEO (I wondered why the share has been tanking-apart from the interesting 9 month results which I haven't seen). Bamburi's CEO has also left . Looks like its that time of the yr.
Macro-view: Water rates go up in the new year, maize (our staple food) prices seems to have broken the gate and are on an upward stampede and oil prices remain sticky. So looks like the only way inflation will go below 20% in the first half of 2009 is if its revised (I sense it already has) and some items are removed from the basket. We are walking into economic problems with our eyes wide open. 4 key words for 2009. Food policy. Policy dynamism.

Food Policy: There is a great opportunity to start on a new blank canvas. Just copy and paste the polciy on milk.
Policy dynamism: We nrks are often accused of westernism, but if gova could just react a bit quicker for example on the budget deficit (rather than stealth rise in interest rates) or inflation (was already high last yr), we won't be in this tight situation.


bankelele said...

Strange turn this CEO wheel and the reports
- Mwebesa is new head of CFCFS (stockbroker subsidiary) not CFC Stanbic
- Mwangi at NSE is going to earn more than Mwebesa was, but who the NSE did not want to give a better package. And CDSC's Rose Mambo was knocked out for quoting too high a salary?
- Centum, are too tied to the NSE (ups & down’s) and should focus on their unlisted portfolio -insurance, bottlers, railways etc.
- When you think of CEO's there are two larger than life CEO's 0 Michael Joseph (Safaricom) and James Mwangi (Equity) whose personality is so linked with their brand that I wonder what a departure would mean for their company vision, performance and shareholders. [MJ has already admitted this year that he had been quietly treated for cancer]
[sorry for mini-post]

MainaT said...

Banks-karibu. Tx for the spot on Mwebesa's new role.
When you look at Chris' record, you won't want to hear about him getting a payrise (a paycut maybe).

There does seem to have been efforts to ready-make the position for Mwangi. I really wanted an outsider to come and do the job of restoring confindence and integrity.

I asked James Mwangi that question sometimeback.

coldtusker said...

On JM... and?

MainaT said...

He responded jokingly though it was because of the way i flamed the question and where we were.

Ssembonge said...

A strong and depressed stock prices are the perfect combination for non-resident Kenyans.

If only the would let the NSE find a bottom on its own.

MainaT said...

Ssem, one of my biggest moans. The NSE despite its size has as we've seen in the past, huge potential.

Urgently requires some independent direction.