Tuesday, October 23, 2007

TPS: One of the stocks of 2008?

Did you know that TPSshareprice has outperformed NMG over the last three years? Of the Aga Khan shares, only Jubilee has done better.  So why do I think it will be a stock to watch for 2008:
  1. It should start seeing the benefits of its regional approach with tremendous improvements in its Zanzibar, Ug and lately Rwanda businesses
  2. Tourism in Kenya is up 36% on year-to-date compared to last year. And projected to explode in the next 5 years (1m to 5m tourists-read Fintrade's article on the same)
  3. The Serena offering in Kenya is increasingly targetting the growing middle class in Kenya with weekend excursions; 2/3 day fairly-well priced offers to go see game at Maasai Mara et al
  4. A lot of administration has now been streamlined-its possible to now reserve your stay online. This has led to cost cuts.
  5. TPS are projecting to double PBT for the year (based on their first half performance) and probably the same for 2008.
  6. TPS is of course the only hospitality/tourism stock at the NSE. Despite a 1 for 5 bonus issue in June, the share price is today back to its pre-bonus issue price.
  7. Interestingly, TPS are offering all their shareholders a 12.5% discount for any bookings this year.
In other stock news, Equity announced its Q3 numbers (with 98% yoy growth, although slightly down on Q2). As did EA Cable (they had a 24% increase yoy, but are getting stung by aluminium prices). Its good to see the effort they are putting into diversifying their revenue from Kenya -its  a good political hedge. It also a bit of a shock to see Kenya Orchard (they produce some very yummy strawberry jam)  announce their results. They do need a decent accountant however.

2 comments:

bankelele said...

I'm dissapointed that teh Sarova IPO has not materialized, but that was propbably die to the MD/family leader who passed away about 2 years ago.

Serena will do well, expanded in East Africa, but am surprised to hear that it has outperformed NMG. Problem is tourism is so fickle and one Osama event can change the picture for years

MainaT said...

Banks, I think the tourism industry is now a lot more resilent and you can see that by the work its putting into developing the domestic market. 2ndly, the Osama effect is oversold. US is bringing 10-20% of tourism business despite an on-going travel advisory.