At the NSE , any GoK-run or affiliated stocks will likely take a pounding between now and Dec. These either have GoK majority share ownership or GoK has highest shareholding. Those stocks that have foolishly and closely aligned themselves with the current regime will also take a pounding. When one listens to ODM, you don't get a sense of continuity in the economics arena and of course business hates uncertainty in planning.
- A typical business needs to do a budget that incorporates certain growth rates aligned to the economic growth rates.
- For those dependant on GoK contracts, their will be worst-case scenario analysis, others dependant on continuity e.g. in construction will similarly take a pause.
- Banks will invest in treasuries instead of lending and so forth.
- Worst-case scenario, diaspora may also play a wait and see game.
In the meantime, my prediction is that the NSE will change by around 30% by year-end.