Thursday, April 24, 2008

EA Cables, Safaricom & KCB

Just how oversubscribed was Safaricom? Based on various hints from brokers, probably in the region of 200%. But that is for the retailer section and what I’m wary of is whether there was enough interest from foreign investors. Reading the prospectus, it seems that these were supposed to have gone through Morgan Stanley, yet many local brokers are saying they’ve received applications? Secondly, the book building price range was (according to the D&B summary anyway) supposed to have been announced by 9th of April and then FII would apply for their allocation. The only way I can see this being fully subscribed is if retail section is oversubscribed by more than 200% thus some shares are taken from the FII section.

EA Cables has spectacularly surprised by announcing 59% rise in PBT (43% PAT) despite the almost two months of disrupted business. It’s secret? Regional growth that is reducing country-specific risk and also aimed at tapping into economic growth in our neighbour nations.

Seems the rumours about possible oil in Uganda are now confirmed. Tullow's shares (one of the few shares I hold in the UK) has started racing after it announced that that it may have a billion-barrels of oil in Ug. Better get some more Ug shares as well…

After Equity, KCB is now rumoured to be in play for a foreign investor to come in possibly UK’s largest bank HSBC. Very curious. HSBC only has a small offshore piece in SA (via its acquisition of the old Midland bank). However, it’s also involved in an Africa fund joint venture with some Prince Hamed or the other. In any case, what a vote of confidence it would be for KCB, and Kenya generally!

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