NSE: lull before a dip or a rise?

Despite a very positive referendum outcome with Kenyans voting overwhelmingly to look forward than backwards and doing so peacefully even in the volatile RV region, the NSE seems to have taken the news with a discernible lack of interest. Is the market ignoring these gains in the political environment or are there other factors at work?

Yes there was a rise pre-the voting day as it became clear that the YES team had done enough and moreover Kibz govt had anticipated any violence in RV by posting security everywhere, but a subsequent correction whittled these gains.

To my mind, the reduction in political risk should mean the NSE heading towards a 5,000 close by end of the year to reflect the gains in the economic arena not just from the YES vote but also the subsequent dividend from the same as well as the bumper agriculture produce that we should be seeing this year. This latter factor should mean lower produce prices this year and thus lower inflation feeding into higher savings and so on.

The future for Kenya's economy notwithstanding usual weather issues is frankly very bright and one would be advised to pick NSE shares that have either strong regional momentum or products that have a regional reach. Equity, Centum, DTB to name but a few have set their eyes on achieving the same sort of growth rates in EA that they have in Kenya.