Thursday, July 08, 2010

Will forthcoming Katiba referendum impact NSE?

By and large, business loathes uncertainty no matter what the source. As do the investors who invest in such businesses. There is logic to this. A business will normally plan and target certain revenue and cost outcomes for the year or for multi-years. These will be primarily be based on it being able to sell as much of its product and services as possible while keeping the costs down. While there will be some scenario testing it will not usually include the impact of PEV or continued tense politicking.

Kenya has spent 47 years under one katiba and its not gotten us far from 1963 apart from population-wise. A large part of this is because we didn't know what we know today about governance. This katiba is the sum of our learnings over those 47 years. For 20 years we've seeked to agree what these are and now we have a document that summarises them. To continue dwelling on this is sheer waste given the other pressing needs that we have.

A Yes vote will bring closure to the yearning for a new form of governance. It'll mean that we have a katiba that takes us forward for another 47 years. It is not a static document i.e. it is amendable. 2012 general election will be held under new rules that we understand

A No vote will may condemn us to another 20 years of continuous search because we'll effectively have taken the energy out of a new katiba. A No vote will mean that 2012 is approached with apprehension. The issues which would make us vote No are not even small print but a symptomatic of a minority that refuses to see the woods for the trees. A No vote will mean that NSE definitely factors-in a fractious 2012 general election.

For all the above, its advisable to hold cash that will allow you to take advantage of some low priced stocks or average down.


cara-blog said...

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Maishinski said...

Ukweli mtupu.

If NO Wins, SELL! SELL! SELL! Liquidate "everything" and put some cash in foreign currency.

If YES Wins, BUY! BUY! BUY! and consider investing in real estate.