Saturday, March 07, 2009

NSE weekly catch up: the next bull run

So, you've done your SWOT analysis, looked at recent share performance and finally you want to know how the share will perform i.e. when the NSE will have another bull run? Have a look at this 18 year chart for some clues. I believe without a shadow of a doubt that the NSE will only have another sustained bull run, if we have political changes that capture Kenyans' aspirations and imagination. Of a similar nature to the coming of the multiparty era of early 1990s and the Rainbow coalition of 2002. Why? Stock markets are about psychology (positive national mood has a positive effect on the stock market performance and vice versa). These changes also extend to the economy. Finally, those foreign investors who like to have some exposures emerging and frontier bourses will pick up on such changes and bring in their funds.
Bottomline: rather than averaging down and other bear tactics, why not invest some of that cash to change Kenya for the better? If 5% of the ksh690bn of the NSE turnover was invested in changing our politics for the better, we'd be far. And create the next NSE bull run.

Stanchart showed that you can be too cautious and it will hurt as PAT fell by 4% from '07. Its explanations about effeciency investments ring hollow unless there is a targetted revenue generation stream. Btw, it still remains the best share, dividend-wise (another Ksh5 will be paid). But also in terms of RoC.
Co-op: became the only bank so far that reduced its loan loss provision for 2008 (apart from HFCK). Many know that it has had previous history with bad loans so expect this move to bite it on the backside in 2009 or 2010. DPS of a whole Ksh0.10 was also thrown in for good measure.
HFCK's PAT was up 86%. Equity midas touch rubbing off on it perhaps?
Kakuzi also pulled a shocker with profit growth of 47%. And not only attributable to revaluation of tea leaves. DPS of Ksh1 to be paid in May.
FTSE: Finally got my second lot of Barclays's shares at a decent price. Otherwise very choppy waters as investors are fatigued by the bad news' stories. Mainly from across the pond.


bankelele said...

So we have to fix our politics to become a prosperous nation? seems easy on paper
- The business community learnt in 2007 that you can't leave elections and leadership to politicans alone. I believe come next elections they will be more involved

ka-investor said...

The problem with ceeding 5% of NSE turnover is in the system of ensuring that it does the right thing. And there is where all our problems lie.

@bakelele: the business community should not wait until the next election...they need to do something now.

coldtusker said...

Ka - The biz community is trying to get involved but it is not easy. I think what banks is saying is that in 2012, the biz community will do their best to remind politicians why NOT to go the 2007 way... and Kenyans why not to go the 2012 way...

I expect ad agencies to do very well in 2012.

MainaT said...

Banks-yes. But why do we have to wait until 2012 to create another bull run? Also, business community will only push its own agenda and everybody else needs to get their own piece in.
Ka-Investor-I wasn't saying that the NSE does this, its upto us investors to do the levying and use it to push a different and necessary political agenda.

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