Vision 2030; feasible?

Launched on 29/10/06 by the president, the vision 2030 objectives are to transform Kenya into an economic powerhouse with a sustainable growth rate of 10 per cent by 2030 thus becoming a middle-income, prosperous country. The goals are to wipe out:
-Absolute poverty
-Famine
-Mass unemployment and
-Preventable deaths from malaria and water-borne diseases.
The vision also aims to build a democratic political system, rule of law and protect the rights and freedoms of every individual and society.

The president mandated the National Economic and Social Council which was formed in 2005 to steer the vision implementation and monitoring.

There are nonetheless skeptical views on whether this is achievable amongst them are that, the fight against corruption has stagnated if not headed towards the wrong direction as exemplified by the failure to prosecute the Goldenberg and Anglo-Leasing economic crimes. This is made worse by having majority of past, current and future economic criminals littered all over the political and elite systems.

One also cannot fail to notice that reform on governance looks bleak as illustrated by the bizarre mutation of political parties and the registration of world’s highest number of political parties i.e. 250 and still counting.

Others will point at the challenges in implementing the Economic Recovery Strategy for Wealth and Employment Creation (ERS). Such as the, high unemployment amongst the youth, inequality in wealth and income redistribution, rapid urbanization about 6 % annually, low saving ratio of about 16% compared to needs. There is also the high cost of production occasioned by poor infrastructure and escalating cost of power and fuel.

Conspicuously, some within and outside the government will not fail to see vision 2030 as a NARC manifesto implemented from top to bottom rather than the opposite which means it will be constrained by lack of consensus. Without clear funding others will term it as unachievable fantasy.

On a continental level, skeptics will draw on the ineffectiveness and failures of the AU and the toothless underachieving NEPAD to transform Africa into an economic giant despite her enormous resources. This is because it is hard to see Kenya transformation outside that of Africa as a whole.

Globally there are other challenges outside the government control such as globalization, global warming which will adversely impact on the agricultural output as well as the brain drain.


Optimist on the other hand, will argue that the over 1 billion dollar a year remittance by the diaspora community into Kenya will speed the 2030 achievement. Also on its way is the fibre optic cable that will transform the science and technology plus bring down ICT cost.

On the political front, implementation of CDF will help redress the inequitable distribution of resources. This involves the government commitment to allocate 5 per cent of the total revenue to finance development in all the 210 constituencies in the country with the poor constituencies receiving more money than richer ones.

There is also an attempt on regional integration of East African and COMESA which will help expand the Kenyan market and competitiveness.

Other strides towards achieving 2030 vision include the implementation of free primary education and from next year subsidizing of the secondary school education and health care system.

My take
There is an urgent need for a statutory framework to support vision 2030 otherwise it may lack the political goodwill of successive governments. Least one forgets similar visions were launched during Kenyatta’s and Moi’s Era of which some of the current leaders were then the key architects either, in government, civil society or in the private sector.

In Kenyatta's era; there was the Sessional Paper No. 10 of 1965 on African Socialism and its Application to Kenya. This laid down the development policies aimed at correcting regional imbalances and removing poverty, ignorance and disease. The key authors included none other one than the current president who was then a fresh graduate from the London School of Economics. However, over 40 years later, the noble aims of the paper have not been achieved. Instead majority of what came out was entrenched political patronage and the skewed distribution of resources to the high productive areas whilst marginalizing low potential areas. It is also evident that poverty and tribalism eradication remains a mirage whilst the gap between the rich and the poor continues to widen.

Out with kenyatta and in with Moi’s Sessional Paper No.1 of 1986 on Economic Management for Renewed Growth. This set out to renew the economic recovery and growth through liberalization and far reaching reforms on fiscal and monetary policy as well as institutional and structural programs. Instead what came out of this attempt was heavy capital flight into secret international accounts by the politically correct individuals. This also gave birth to the Goldenberg financial scandal preceded by suspension of external aid and political unrest and intolerance. During this period the economy experienced stagnation and decline with growth rates averaging less than 2 per cent. The United Nations termed it as the lost decade, which continued up to 2002.

These two Era’s draws the point that many of our so called leaders are known for generously talking the walk whilst outmost being economical with walking the talk. Therefore anything they promise must be closely scrutinized.

And, yes, it is feasible to attain the noble aims of 2030 vision and beyond. Paradoxically, this will have little to do with the politician yet it significantly should. The speedily achievement will be driven by a strong civil society, independent media, the private sector and the overly optimistic and hardworking peace loving mwananchi; i.e. me and you. Inclusive of this should be a strong appraisal and review framework to hold the government into account.