Yes? No? the katiba referendum summary

If you:

Want to be able to recall your MP for non-performance. vote YES

Believe MPs should set their pay. vote NO

Want land policy removed from president's control with size set being set by parliament. vote YES

Believe current land policy is good and its good president has veto on who gets land. vote NO

Want an independent judiciary. vote YES

Believe the president should continue appointing favorable judges without veto. vote NO

Want Kadhi courts not to be GoK funded, but think Christians can get 1m signatures to amend. vote YES

Believe Kadhi courts (a) will cease to exist (b) are the most important item in the katiba. vote NO

Want president's appointments to be vetted and veto'd by parliament. vote YES

Believe president should have the right to appoint who he pleases. vote NO

Want an independent central bank able to impartially supervise the financial industry. vote YES

Believe that the president and his finance minister know the banking industry best. vote NO

Want a semi-centralised governance able to take local development decisions. vote YES

Believe a majimbo system that appreciate regional tribes is the missing development piece. vote No

Want an anti-abortion law that recognises that special urgent situations for mothers' lives can occur. vote YES

Believe that there is an anti-abortion law that can stop abortions occurring in Kenya. vote NO

Believe current katiba is better than the proposed one. vote NO

Want a katiba that is superior to current one and reduces chances of dictatorship. vote YES

Want a constitution that recognises that its impossible to get all Kenyans saying yes. vote YES

Believe a katiba ain't a katiba until all voters agree its the business. vote NO

Will forthcoming Katiba referendum impact NSE?

By and large, business loathes uncertainty no matter what the source. As do the investors who invest in such businesses. There is logic to this. A business will normally plan and target certain revenue and cost outcomes for the year or for multi-years. These will be primarily be based on it being able to sell as much of its product and services as possible while keeping the costs down. While there will be some scenario testing it will not usually include the impact of PEV or continued tense politicking.

Kenya has spent 47 years under one katiba and its not gotten us far from 1963 apart from population-wise. A large part of this is because we didn't know what we know today about governance. This katiba is the sum of our learnings over those 47 years. For 20 years we've seeked to agree what these are and now we have a document that summarises them. To continue dwelling on this is sheer waste given the other pressing needs that we have.

A Yes vote will bring closure to the yearning for a new form of governance. It'll mean that we have a katiba that takes us forward for another 47 years. It is not a static document i.e. it is amendable. 2012 general election will be held under new rules that we understand

A No vote will may condemn us to another 20 years of continuous search because we'll effectively have taken the energy out of a new katiba. A No vote will mean that 2012 is approached with apprehension. The issues which would make us vote No are not even small print but a symptomatic of a minority that refuses to see the woods for the trees. A No vote will mean that NSE definitely factors-in a fractious 2012 general election.

For all the above, its advisable to hold cash that will allow you to take advantage of some low priced stocks or average down.