Monday, February 15, 2010

NSE & 2012: Scenarios for investors to ponder

Investors who hadn't factored 2012 into their equation when investing in Kenya, will today have bashed the wall in frustration.
Although most of us only think of LEPEST in theoretical cases, in Kenya and some other parts of Africa, its must to peg some risk-weighting against each of these factors at a macro (investing in Kenya vs investing in the UK as an example) and micro ( the impact of changes in political situation on the prospects of a particular firm).
Lets consider likely before and upto 2012 and likely bearing on NSE:
  • ODM/PNU break up: Initially, I thought RAO and Ruto were playing for the cameras. Until I heard Joshua Kuttuny say that their (some of RV MPs) strategy was to muddy RAO until he became unelectable. The weekend's events portend serious issues for ODM. People like Martha Karua are not really in PNU. Lets assume that the wantaway parties don't join up with anybody else. Would be the worst case scenario for Kenya imho because the nation would be ungovernable. Note, if Ruto et al leave ODM, they'd have to seek re-election
  • ODM loses Ruto et al gains young Central/Kisii/Coast MPs: The compe with PNU and Ruto ensemble (aka KKK aka Klu klaxx Klan) would be interesting. If KKK lost against an ODM alliance with those MPs, Kenya would prosper despite pockets of violence in RV. A win for KKK would lead to more corruption with a rapture between UK/Ruto vs Kalonzo when he realises he'll never be Rais.
  • Kibaki waits until new katiba is passed and goes for a 3rd term: Would lead to PEV all over again.
  • Business as usual: ODM remains intact and PNU similarly continues to go thru the motions of breakdown though primarily a GEMA party. Most likely to lead to PEV repeat in my view. The mantra that drove ODM was hatred of the GEMA...

2 comments:

Maishinski said...

We have been brainwashed to believe that there's no Kenya without ODM / PNU / KADU / KANU / PDM / Kibaki / Raila /Ruto / Kalonzo, Coalition, 40thieves etc

Yote yawezekana bila ukabila.

Yote yawezekana bila fujo.

Yote yawezekana bila uongo.

We need to start looking at things from an empowered perspective.

As independent thinkers, we must stop being merely helpless spectators or pawns and commit to being players in this game.

I commend the Private sector alliance and NCBDA for taking a more empowered stance and becoming more active in national affairs (e.g. by shaping policies and pressuring the politicians to adopt progressive approach to leading). I hope this continues. More can be done.

Kenyan investors should unite to form Kenya National Investors Alliance. A semi-political movement that will lobby for progressive leadership, stability and institutional framework for protection of investors interests across the entire country.

Spread the word!

MainaT said...

When investing, let pessism be your best friend...