Tuesday, May 29, 2007

HFCK Rights Issue-its turning point?

If this piece in the East Africa is true, HFCK's rights issue due next month will be the event that clearly tells us what the future holds for the mortgage lender. As the only standalone mortgage lender in Kenya, HFCK has struggled to hold on to its market share as stronger more liquid banks continue to enter the mortgage market. The fact of the matter is that, HFCK has no future as a standalone entity given its low profitability, ongoing NPL burden and of course a more competitive market.
Last year's aborted takeover move by the G29 drew investors attention to its potential as a takeover candidate. Potential suitors would be other banks with interest in gaining entry into this sector notably;
  1. Equity-but it might prefer to grow its own mortgage business organically
  2. KCB-perhaps to build on its S&L venture, however unlikely given its own expansion plans
  3. G29-given the share price is almost back to the level when they applied, and their reasons for wanting to buy HFCK remain valid, they might do so now. Of note, is that Jimnah Mbaru, one of their founding members holds 7.32% of the HFCK according to most recent data from Hasinet.
  4. Foreign bank-not sure what would be the rationale unless to access HFCK's branch network and customer base as there are banks with either a wider network or larger customer base.

In any case, if the worst case scenario does occur i.e. rights issue are not taken up by its largest shareholders (CDC, govt (NSSF), shareholders should only look out that they don't get stampeded as they exit the share...

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